🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Chiangrai United welcome Lamphun Warrior to Leo Chiangrai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 December 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chiangrai United's home record at Leo Chiangrai Stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Lamphun Warrior — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lamphun Warrior's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Chiangrai United have won 2, Lamphun Warrior 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Lamphun Warrior winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 44% versus Lamphun Warrior 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 37% | Lamphun Warrior 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.61 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.795 / defence 0.871 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.952 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.207. Chiangrai United's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.61 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lamphun Warrior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Chiangrai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Chiangrai United games / 44 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 21%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Lamphun Warrior 4.76. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Chiangrai United 30% | Lamphun Warrior 70%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights