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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Dragon Solar Park plays host to Ratchaburi versus Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 11 January 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Current Form

Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ratchaburi at Dragon Solar Park this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Chonburi FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chonburi FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 3L across 8 road games this term (1.12 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Ratchaburi, 1.30 for Chonburi FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Ratchaburi 3W, Chonburi FC 2W, 2D.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Ratchaburi winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 40% versus Chonburi FC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 40% | Chonburi FC 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.55 xG and Chonburi FC 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.924 / defence 0.844 | Chonburi FC attack 0.904 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.185. Data: 45 Ratchaburi games / 15 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 51% | Draw 29% | Chonburi FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Chonburi FC 5.00. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 50% | Chonburi FC 62%.

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