BG Pathum United 1-1 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 76% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 25 as BG Pathum United welcome Chonburi FC to BG Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, BG Pathum United have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BG Stadium, BG Pathum United have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — BG Pathum United are significantly better at BG Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chonburi FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (BG Pathum United) versus 1.20 (Chonburi FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for BG Pathum United, 1 for Chonburi FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 3–1 with BG Pathum United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
BG Pathum United trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Chonburi FC trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 50% versus Chonburi FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 56% | Chonburi FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 2.89 xG and Chonburi FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 1.299 / defence 0.982 | Chonburi FC attack 0.853 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.767 / away 1.149. BG Pathum United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 2.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Chonburi FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing BG Pathum United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 BG Pathum United games / 54 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 76% | Draw 15% | Chonburi FC 9%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 1.32 | Draw 6.67 | Chonburi FC 11.11. The model has a clear lean to BG Pathum United (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 76% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: BG Pathum United 70% | Chonburi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: BG Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 76% | Draw 15% | Chonburi FC 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 59% | xG BG Pathum United 2.89 / Chonburi FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 1.299 / def 0.982 | Chonburi FC attack 0.853 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.767 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.89
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Chonburi FC xG
59%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at BG Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC?
BG Pathum United 1 - 1 Chonburi FC.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC part of?
BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 76% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 9% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both BG Pathum United and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Chonburi FC?
Record (5 meetings): BG Pathum United 3W | Draws 1 | Chonburi FC 1W.
What form are BG Pathum United and Chonburi FC in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates BG Pathum United's attack at 1.30x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus BG Pathum United's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
76%
1.31
15%
6.89
9%
10.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
3 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.89
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
3.86
0.96
Chonburi FC xG
1.31
76%
Home win
6.89
15%
Draw
10.94
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
6%
18.05
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
1%
197.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.89 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 0.96 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 3.86.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, BG Pathum United have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 23W 13D 18L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC's form line: 19W 11D 24L from 54 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BG Pathum United on 1.52 PPG, Chonburi FC on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, BG Pathum United have posted 2.04 PPG from 26 outings (16W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — BG Pathum United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 5W 6D 15L from 26 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chonburi FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.37 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 23W 13D 18L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 19W 11D 24L in their last 54 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Chonburi FC away?
BG Pathum United's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 2.04 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2022, when BG Pathum United won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BG Pathum United's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
BG Pathum United
2
Draws
2
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 4, Chonburi FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when BG Pathum United 2-3 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Chonburi FC?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 58%, Chonburi FC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for BG Pathum United and 58% for Chonburi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Chonburi FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of BG Pathum United's games and 65% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BG Pathum United vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of BG Pathum United's matches and 58% of Chonburi FC's.
Do BG Pathum United and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BG Pathum United and Chonburi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United and Chonburi FC finished level at 1-1 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 2.89 xG and Chonburi FC 0.96 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. BG Pathum United fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.30 / defence 0.98 against Chonburi FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.26, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 76% | Draw 15% | Chonburi FC 9%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 56%, Chonburi FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BG Pathum United 1.52 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.