Chonburi FC 0-1 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Pathom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nakhon Pathom make the trip to Chonburi UTA Stadium to face Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chonburi FC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC at Chonburi UTA Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Nakhon Pathom's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Nakhon Pathom have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Chonburi FC against 1.00 for Nakhon Pathom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Chonburi FC, 1 for Nakhon Pathom and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Nakhon Pathom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Chonburi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Nakhon Pathom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 60% and Nakhon Pathom 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 48% | Nakhon Pathom 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.85 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.915 / defence 0.923 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.910 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.171. Data: 55 Chonburi FC games / 25 Nakhon Pathom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 57% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 19%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Nakhon Pathom 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 50% | Nakhon Pathom 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 57% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Chonburi FC 1.85 / Nakhon Pathom 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.915 / def 0.923 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.910 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Nakhon Pathom xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Chonburi FC 0 - 1 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 57% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chonburi FC and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Nakhon Pathom?
Record (1 meetings): Chonburi FC 0W | Draws 0 | Nakhon Pathom 1W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Nakhon Pathom in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chonburi FC's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Pathom's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — Nakhon Pathom's attack (0.91x) against Chonburi FC's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.13
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.84
0.98
Nakhon Pathom xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
3%
33.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.98 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chonburi FC's recent record stands at 6W 8D 11L from 25 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Pathom, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 10L across 25 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Chonburi FC against 1.16 for Nakhon Pathom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Chonburi FC have managed 5W 3D 4L from 12 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Chonburi FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nakhon Pathom's away record stands at 2W 4D 6L across 12 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 1.40 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Nakhon Pathom in 80%.
Last 25 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 6W 8D 11L in their last 25 games (1.04 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
2
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Nakhon Pathom?
From 2 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 0, Nakhon Pathom have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Chonburi FC 0-1 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Nakhon Pathom?
Nakhon Pathom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Nakhon Pathom see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 42%, Nakhon Pathom 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Chonburi FC) and 58% (Nakhon Pathom).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chonburi FC have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Nakhon Pathom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Chonburi FC's games and 83% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 58% of Nakhon Pathom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Nakhon Pathom tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nakhon Pathom in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Pathom defy the odds to beat Chonburi FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Pathom beat Chonburi FC 0-1 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.85 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.98 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chonburi FC fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.92 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 57% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 19%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Nakhon Pathom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 48%, Nakhon Pathom 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.04 PPG, Nakhon Pathom 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Pathom win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.