Prachuap 2-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sam Ao Stadium plays host to Prachuap versus Sukhothai FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Prachuap have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Prachuap, 1.10 for Sukhothai FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Prachuap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sukhothai FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Prachuap 2W, Sukhothai FC 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Sukhothai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Prachuap 67% and Sukhothai FC 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 52% | Sukhothai FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.95 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.860 / defence 0.893 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.809 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.167. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Prachuap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Prachuap games / 54 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 63% | Draw 23% | Sukhothai FC 15%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Sukhothai FC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Prachuap 70% | Sukhothai FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 63% | Draw 23% | Sukhothai FC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG Prachuap 1.95 / Sukhothai FC 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.860 / def 0.893 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.809 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.719 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Sukhothai FC xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Prachuap 2 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 63% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Prachuap and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Sukhothai FC?
Record (3 meetings): Prachuap 2W | Draws 0 | Sukhothai FC 1W.
What form are Prachuap and Sukhothai FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (0.86) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.81x) against Prachuap's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
63%
1.60
23%
4.40
15%
6.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.80
0.84
Sukhothai FC xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
6.83
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
2%
48.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.84 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Prachuap come into this having played 54 games, going 14W 16D 24L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.17 PPG from 54 outings (16W 15D 23L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Prachuap against 1.17 for Sukhothai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Prachuap's home form reads 11W 7D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.78 points per game from 27 outings (4W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Prachuap are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.04 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 14W 16D 24L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 16W 15D 23L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Prachuap's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.48 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Prachuap won 0-3 on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Prachuap
3
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 3, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Sukhothai FC 0-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Sukhothai FC?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 67%, Sukhothai FC 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Prachuap) and 52% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Prachuap's games and 63% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Prachuap's recent games and 52% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Prachuap edge out Sukhothai FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Sukhothai FC 2-1 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.95 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.84 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.86 / defence 0.89 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 63% | Draw 23% | Sukhothai FC 15%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 52%, Sukhothai FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.07 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.