Khon Kaen United 1-1 Trat FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Khon Kaen United at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khon Kaen United vs Trat FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Trat FC make the trip to Khon Kaen Stadium to face Khon Kaen United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Khon Kaen United (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United's home record at Khon Kaen Stadium: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Trat FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trat FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trat FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Khon Kaen United's favour (1.40 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Khon Kaen United 0W, Trat FC 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Khon Kaen United half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Trat FC half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 46% versus Trat FC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 54% | Trat FC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.98 xG and Trat FC 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.924 / defence 0.764 | Trat FC attack 0.725 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.736 / away 1.128. Trat FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Khon Kaen United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Khon Kaen United's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Khon Kaen United games / 24 Trat FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 69% | Draw 21% | Trat FC 10%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 1.45 | Draw 4.76 | Trat FC 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Khon Kaen United (69%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khon Kaen United are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Khon Kaen United 50% | Trat FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Trat FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 69% | Draw 21% | Trat FC 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 41% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.98 / Trat FC 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.924 / def 0.764 | Trat FC attack 0.725 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.736 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Khon Kaen United (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Trat FC xG
41%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Trat FC kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Trat FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Trat FC?
Khon Kaen United 1 - 1 Trat FC.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Trat FC being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Trat FC part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Trat FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Trat FC?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 69% chance of winning, Trat FC a 10% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Khon Kaen United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Trat FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Trat FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Trat FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Trat FC?
Record (1 meetings): Khon Kaen United 0W | Draws 1 | Trat FC 0W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Trat FC in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Trat FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Khon Kaen United's attack at 0.92x the league average against Trat FC's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trat FC's attack (0.72x) against Khon Kaen United's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khon Kaen United Win
69%
1.45
21%
4.77
10%
9.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.61
0.62
Trat FC xG
1.45
69%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
9.86
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
54%
1.87
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
37%
2.71
1%
71.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Trat FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Trat FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 0.62 for Trat FC, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Trat FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, Khon Kaen United have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 6W 9D 9L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trat FC's form line: 5W 6D 13L from 24 games, 0.88 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Trat FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Khon Kaen United against 0.88 for Trat FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Khon Kaen United have posted 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (4W 6D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Khon Kaen United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Trat FC have gone 1W 1D 9L from 11 away games — 0.36 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trat FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khon Kaen United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Khon Kaen United are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Trat FC are on 1.25 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trat FC in 67%.
Last 24 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Trat FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Trat FC in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 6W 9D 9L in their last 24 games (1.12 PPG), while Trat FC have gone 5W 6D 13L in their last 24 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Trat FC away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.64 PPG; Trat FC away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Khon Kaen United
2
Draws
0
Trat FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Trat FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 0, Trat FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Trat FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Khon Kaen United 1-1 Trat FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Trat FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 54%, Trat FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Khon Kaen United and 73% for Trat FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 27% of games; Trat FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Trat FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Trat FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 54% of Trat FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Trat FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Khon Kaen United's matches and 73% of Trat FC's.
Do Khon Kaen United and Trat FC tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Trat FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khon Kaen United and Trat FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United and Trat FC finished level at 1-1 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.98 xG and Trat FC 0.62 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Khon Kaen United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.92 / defence 0.76 against Trat FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.24, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 69% | Draw 21% | Trat FC 10%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 54%, Trat FC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Trat FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 1.12 PPG, Trat FC 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trat FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.