Lausanne 1-2 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lausanne face Yverdon Sport.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lausanne host Yverdon Sport at Stade de la Tuilière in Super League (matchday 3). Kick-off is Sunday 6 August 2023 at 14:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 2 matches, Lausanne stand at 0W 1D 1L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Across their last 2 games, Yverdon Sport have recorded 0W 1D 1L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lausanne 0.50 PPG, Yverdon Sport 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.49 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.796 / defence 1.096 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.722 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.270. Lausanne's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.49. Yverdon Sport's attack rating of 0.722 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from Lausanne's last 2 games and Yverdon Sport's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 45% | Draw 33% | Yverdon Sport 22%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.22 | Draw 3.07 | Yverdon Sport 4.47. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Lausanne 2 games, Yverdon Sport 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, matchday 3 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Sunday 6 August 2023 at 14:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 45% | Draw 33% | Yverdon Sport 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Lausanne 1.49 / Yverdon Sport 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.796 / def 1.096 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.722 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Yverdon Sport xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport FAQs
What time does Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 14:15 UK time on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Lausanne 1 - 2 Yverdon Sport.
Where is Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport part of?
Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport is a Super League fixture (matchday 3) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 45% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lausanne and Yverdon Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Yverdon Sport's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Yverdon Sport's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lausanne's last 2 games and Yverdon Sport's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
45%
2.22
33%
3.07
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.49
1.00
Yverdon Sport xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
5%
19.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Lausanne and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.00 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lausanne come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 1D 1L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D.
On the other side, Yverdon Sport sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 0.50 PPG, Yverdon Sport on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Early Season
Yverdon Sport
Early Season
Lausanne (Home) vs Yverdon Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lausanne
Early Season
Yverdon Sport
Early Season
❓ Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport Form FAQs
What form are Lausanne and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lausanne have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Oct 2024, when Lausanne won Yverdon Sport 0-3 Lausanne.
Lausanne's record when hosting Yverdon Sport specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Lausanne
1
Draws
2
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Yverdon Sport?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Lausanne have won 4, Yverdon Sport have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lausanne and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2025: Lausanne 4-1 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and Yverdon Sport?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lausanne and Yverdon Sport matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Lausanne's games and 50% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lausanne and Yverdon Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lausanne's recent games and 50% of Yverdon Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and Yverdon Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Lausanne's recent matches and 100% of Yverdon Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Yverdon Sport defy the odds to beat Lausanne 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport beat Lausanne 1-2 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.49 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.00 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Yverdon Sport outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.80 / defence 1.10 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.72 / defence 1.13, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 45% | Draw 33% | Yverdon Sport 22%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Yverdon Sport win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 50%, Yverdon Sport 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 0.50 PPG, Yverdon Sport 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yverdon Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Yverdon Sport scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.