Yverdon Sport 2-2 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BSC Young Boys at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
BSC Young Boys make the trip to Stade de la Maladière to face Yverdon Sport in Super League (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Sunday 30 July 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Yverdon Sport have collected 0.00 PPG across their last 1 games: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
BSC Young Boys's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
BSC Young Boys's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, BSC Young Boys are the stronger side — 2.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.20 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 0.867 / defence 1.150 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.002 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.268. Data: built from Yverdon Sport's last 1 games and BSC Young Boys's last 37. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 28% | Draw 31% | BSC Young Boys 40%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 3.52 | Draw 3.21 | BSC Young Boys 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, BSC Young Boys are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BSC Young Boys if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Yverdon Sport 1 games, BSC Young Boys 37) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, matchday 2 | Venue: Stade de la Maladière • Kick-off: Sunday 30 July 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 28% | Draw 31% | BSC Young Boys 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Yverdon Sport 1.20 / BSC Young Boys 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 0.867 / def 1.150 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.002 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.46
BSC Young Boys xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys FAQs
What time does Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Stade de la Maladière.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys?
Yverdon Sport 2 - 2 BSC Young Boys.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Maladière.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys part of?
Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys is a Super League fixture (matchday 2) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 28% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Yverdon Sport's attack at 0.87x the league average against BSC Young Boys's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — BSC Young Boys's attack (1.00x) against Yverdon Sport's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from Yverdon Sport's last 1 games and BSC Young Boys's last 37, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
28%
3.52
31%
3.21
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
2.66
1.46
BSC Young Boys xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
7%
15.19
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.46 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Yverdon Sport come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L.
On the other side, BSC Young Boys sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five.
BSC Young Boys carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Yverdon Sport — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Yverdon Sport are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; BSC Young Boys in 100%.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Early Season
BSC Young Boys
Early Season
Yverdon Sport (Home) vs BSC Young Boys (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Yverdon Sport
Early Season
BSC Young Boys
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys Form FAQs
What form are Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BSC Young Boys won BSC Young Boys 6-1 Yverdon Sport on 5 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yverdon Sport have gone 0W 3D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against BSC Young Boys — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Yverdon Sport
4
Draws
2
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Yverdon Sport have won 0, BSC Young Boys have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: BSC Young Boys 1-1 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Yverdon Sport's recent matches and 100% of BSC Young Boys's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Yverdon Sport's recent games and 100% of BSC Young Boys's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Yverdon Sport's recent matches and 0% of BSC Young Boys's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Maladière, Regular Season - 2, as Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.20 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.46 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against BSC Young Boys attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 1/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 28% | Draw 31% | BSC Young Boys 40%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 0%, BSC Young Boys 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Yverdon Sport scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. BSC Young Boys shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.