FC Basel 1893 1-2 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC Basel 1893 welcome Lausanne to St. Jakob-Park in Super League (matchday 4). Kick-off is Sunday 13 August 2023 at 14:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC Basel 1893 have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne — last 3 games: 0W 1D 2L — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
FC Basel 1893 are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.07 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.33). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from FC Basel 1893's last 10 home games and Lausanne's last 3 games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Lausanne in-play tendencies (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 100% and Lausanne 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Basel 1893 100% | Lausanne 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 2.10 xG and Lausanne 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.190 / defence 1.044 | Lausanne attack 0.844 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.316. Data: built from FC Basel 1893's last 39 games and Lausanne's last 3. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 56% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 18%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 1.78 | Draw 3.80 | Lausanne 5.68. The model has a clear lean to FC Basel 1893 (56%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.10 / 1.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Basel 1893's last 10 home games and Lausanne's last 3 games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Basel 1893 70% (last 10 home games) | Lausanne 100% (last 3 games).
The Poisson model's sample (FC Basel 1893 39 games, Lausanne 3) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, matchday 4 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 14:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 56% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG FC Basel 1893 2.10 / Lausanne 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.190 / def 1.044 | Lausanne attack 0.844 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Lausanne xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne FAQs
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kicked off at 14:15 UK time on Sunday 13 August 2023 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
FC Basel 1893 1 - 2 Lausanne.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne is a Super League fixture (matchday 4) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 56% chance of winning, Lausanne a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Basel 1893's last 39 games and Lausanne's last 3, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.80
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
3.26
1.16
Lausanne xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
12%
8.15
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
2%
46.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.16 for Lausanne, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893's recent record stands at 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L in the last five.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 2L across 3 games — 0.33 PPG, with L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Basel 1893 by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lausanne heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Lausanne in 100%.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Early Season
Lausanne
Early Season
FC Basel 1893 (Home) vs Lausanne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Basel 1893
Early Season
Lausanne
Early Season
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne Form FAQs
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from March 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won Lausanne 5-1 FC Basel 1893.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Basel 1893
4
Draws
4
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, Lausanne have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: FC Basel 1893 0-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Basel 1893 at 100%, Lausanne at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC Basel 1893 and 67% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Basel 1893's games and 100% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 67% of Lausanne's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of FC Basel 1893's recent matches and 67% of Lausanne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lausanne defy the odds to beat FC Basel 1893 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat FC Basel 1893 1-2 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 2.10 xG and Lausanne 1.16 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lausanne outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.19 / defence 1.04 against Lausanne attack 0.84 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 56% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 18%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Lausanne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 100%, Lausanne 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Lausanne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Basel 1893 managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Lausanne scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.