Lausanne 1-1 Grasshoppers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 36%, yet in-form Grasshoppers provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lausanne vs Grasshoppers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lausanne host Grasshoppers at Stade de la Tuilière in Super League (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 29 July 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 1 matches, Lausanne stand at 0W 0D 1L — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Across their last 10 games, Grasshoppers have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Grasshoppers away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Grasshoppers — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Lausanne's last 1 games and Grasshoppers's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.47 xG and Grasshoppers 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.868 / defence 1.150 | Grasshoppers attack 0.957 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.300. Data: built from Lausanne's last 1 games and Grasshoppers's last 37. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 36% | Draw 30% | Grasshoppers 34%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.79 | Draw 3.33 | Grasshoppers 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.47 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Grasshoppers (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lausanne's last 1 games and Grasshoppers's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's sample (Lausanne 1 games, Grasshoppers 37) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs Grasshoppers | Competition: Super League, matchday 2 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Saturday 29 July 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 36% | Draw 30% | Grasshoppers 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Lausanne 1.47 / Grasshoppers 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.868 / def 1.150 | Grasshoppers attack 0.957 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Grasshoppers xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lausanne vs Grasshoppers FAQs
What time does Lausanne vs Grasshoppers kick off?
Lausanne vs Grasshoppers kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 29 July 2023 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Lausanne 1 - 1 Grasshoppers.
Where is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers part of?
Lausanne vs Grasshoppers is a Super League fixture (matchday 2) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 36% chance of winning, Grasshoppers a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lausanne and Grasshoppers will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lausanne vs Grasshoppers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Grasshoppers's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Grasshoppers's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lausanne's last 1 games and Grasshoppers's last 37, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
36%
2.79
30%
3.33
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.90
1.43
Grasshoppers xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
9%
11.64
8%
12.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lausanne vs Grasshoppers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Lausanne and Grasshoppers expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.43 for Grasshoppers, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lausanne's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five.
Grasshoppers, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 0.00 PPG, Grasshoppers on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Grasshoppers are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Grasshoppers in 100%.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Early Season
Grasshoppers
Early Season
Lausanne (Home) vs Grasshoppers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lausanne
Early Season
Grasshoppers
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Lausanne vs Grasshoppers Form FAQs
What form are Lausanne and Grasshoppers in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Grasshoppers have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2024, when Lausanne won Lausanne 3-0 Grasshoppers.
Lausanne's record when hosting Grasshoppers specifically: 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lausanne
6
Draws
2
Grasshoppers
Recent Meetings
❓ Lausanne vs Grasshoppers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Grasshoppers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lausanne have won 2, Grasshoppers have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and Grasshoppers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Grasshoppers 1-1 Lausanne.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / Grasshoppers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lausanne vs Grasshoppers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lausanne and Grasshoppers matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Lausanne's games and 100% of Grasshoppers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lausanne and Grasshoppers matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Lausanne's matches and 100% of Grasshoppers's.
Do Lausanne and Grasshoppers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 0% of Lausanne's recent matches and 100% of Grasshoppers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lausanne and Grasshoppers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 2, as Lausanne and Grasshoppers drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.47 xG and Grasshoppers 1.43 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Grasshoppers attack 0.96 / defence 1.14, drawn from 1/37 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 36% | Draw 30% | Grasshoppers 34%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 100%, Grasshoppers 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 0.00 PPG, Grasshoppers 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lausanne conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Grasshoppers conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.