Lausanne 3-3 Servette FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Servette FC at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lausanne face Servette FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Servette FC make the trip to Stade de la Tuiliere to face Lausanne in Super League (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Current Form
Lausanne's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Lausanne have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Servette FC (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Servette FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Lausanne against 1.10 for Servette FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Lausanne's last 10 home games and Servette FC's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Lausanne's games and 80% of Servette FC's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Servette FC edge it 4 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Jan 2026, ended Lausanne 1–0 Servette FC — a Lausanne win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Lausanne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Servette FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 61% and Servette FC 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 60% | Servette FC 63%). Note also that Servette FC surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Lausanne recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.67 xG and Servette FC 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.941 / defence 0.974 | Servette FC attack 1.184 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.749 / away 1.496. Data: built from Lausanne's last 57 games and Servette FC's last 57.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 36% | Draw 26% | Servette FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.81 | Draw 3.78 | Servette FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.67 / 1.72) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Servette FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Servette FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lausanne's last 10 home games and Servette FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lausanne 70% (last 10 home games) | Servette FC 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs Servette FC | Competition: Super League, matchday 25 | Venue: Stade de la Tuiliere • Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 36% | Draw 26% | Servette FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Lausanne 1.67 / Servette FC 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.941 / def 0.974 | Servette FC attack 1.184 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.749 / away 1.496 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Servette FC xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lausanne vs Servette FC FAQs
What time does Lausanne vs Servette FC kick off?
Lausanne vs Servette FC kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Lausanne 3 - 3 Servette FC.
Where is Lausanne vs Servette FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What competition is Lausanne vs Servette FC part of?
Lausanne vs Servette FC is a Super League fixture (matchday 25) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 36% chance of winning, Servette FC a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Lausanne and Servette FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lausanne vs Servette FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Servette FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Servette FC's attack (1.18x) against Lausanne's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from Lausanne's last 57 games and Servette FC's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
36%
2.81
26%
3.78
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.39
1.72
Servette FC xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
6%
15.77
7%
13.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lausanne vs Servette FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Lausanne and Servette FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.72 for Servette FC, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lausanne come into this having played 62 games, going 21W 19D 22L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Servette FC sit at 1.44 PPG from 62 outings (23W 20D 19L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Lausanne against 1.44 for Servette FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lausanne's home form reads 14W 7D 10L across their last 31 home games, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Servette FC have taken 1.42 points per game from their last 31 away games (12W 8D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lausanne are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Servette FC are on 1.68 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Servette FC in 71%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
Servette FC
Blended
Lausanne (Home) vs Servette FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lausanne
Blended
Servette FC
Blended
❓ Lausanne vs Servette FC Form FAQs
What form are Lausanne and Servette FC in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 21W 19D 22L in their last 62 games (1.32 PPG), while Servette FC have gone 23W 20D 19L in their last 62 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or Servette FC away?
Lausanne's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.58 PPG; Servette FC away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Servette FC have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lausanne have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Servette FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lausanne
2
Draws
6
Servette FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Lausanne vs Servette FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Servette FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lausanne have won 2, Servette FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and Servette FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Lausanne 0-1 Servette FC.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and Servette FC?
Servette FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Lausanne, 74% for Servette FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Lausanne and 61% for Servette FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / Servette FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lausanne vs Servette FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lausanne and Servette FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Lausanne's games and 74% of Servette FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lausanne and Servette FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Lausanne's matches and 61% of Servette FC's.
Do Lausanne and Servette FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Lausanne's recent matches and 81% of Servette FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lausanne and Servette FC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne and Servette FC finished level at 3-3 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.67 xG and Servette FC 1.72 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Servette FC outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Servette FC attack 1.18 / defence 1.01, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 36% | Draw 26% | Servette FC 38%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 60%, Servette FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Servette FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.32 PPG, Servette FC 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.