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Poisson rates FC Thun at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Thun vs FC Sion encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stockhorn Arena plays host to FC Thun versus FC Sion in Super League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

FC Thun have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stockhorn Arena, FC Thun have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

FC Sion's overall Super League record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, FC Sion have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in FC Thun's favour (2.40 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Thun register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC Sion in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Thun lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with FC Thun winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

FC Thun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

FC Sion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 75% and FC Sion 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Thun 79% | FC Sion 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 2.55 xG and FC Sion 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 1.354 / defence 0.969 | FC Sion attack 1.055 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.518. FC Thun carry an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — their λ of 2.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 24 FC Thun games / 57 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Thun 58% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 21%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | FC Sion 4.76. The model has a clear lean to FC Thun (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.10. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.10 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates FC Thun as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 4.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Thun 70% | FC Sion 80% BTTS from recent games.

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