FC ST. Gallen 0-0 Grasshoppers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC ST. Gallen (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC ST. Gallen face Grasshoppers.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Grasshoppers make the trip to Kybunpark to face FC ST. Gallen in Super League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
FC ST. Gallen (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC ST. Gallen have posted 5W 0D 5L at Kybunpark — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Grasshoppers's overall Super League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Grasshoppers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grasshoppers's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward FC ST. Gallen. A 1.20 PPG lead over Grasshoppers (1.80 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours FC ST. Gallen, who have won 6 of the last 8 meetings against Grasshoppers — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC ST. Gallen and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
FC ST. Gallen — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Grasshoppers — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 66% and Grasshoppers 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 56% | Grasshoppers 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.05 xG and Grasshoppers 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.015 / defence 1.051 | Grasshoppers attack 0.978 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.507. Data: 56 FC ST. Gallen games / 57 Grasshoppers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 48% | Draw 24% | Grasshoppers 28%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Grasshoppers 3.57. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.60 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 60% | Grasshoppers 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 48% | Draw 24% | Grasshoppers 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.05 / Grasshoppers 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.015 / def 1.051 | Grasshoppers attack 0.978 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.507 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Grasshoppers xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers?
FC ST. Gallen 0 - 0 Grasshoppers.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 48% chance of winning, Grasshoppers a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers?
Record (8 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 6W | Draws 1 | Grasshoppers 1W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Grasshoppers (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC ST. Gallen's attack rating (1.01) and Grasshoppers's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Grasshoppers's attack (0.98x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.10
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.60
1.55
Grasshoppers xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
13%
7.79
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
4%
28.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.55 for Grasshoppers, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC ST. Gallen come into this having played 61 games, going 26W 16D 19L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Grasshoppers sit at 1.00 PPG from 61 outings (14W 19D 28L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Grasshoppers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC ST. Gallen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Grasshoppers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC ST. Gallen's home form reads 16W 6D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Grasshoppers have taken 0.83 points per game from 30 outings (6W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Grasshoppers are on 1.26 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Grasshoppers in 61%.
Last 61 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
Grasshoppers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 26W 16D 19L in their last 61 games (1.54 PPG), while Grasshoppers have gone 14W 19D 28L in their last 61 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or Grasshoppers away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.80 PPG; Grasshoppers away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 5-0 on 25 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC ST. Gallen have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Grasshoppers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC ST. Gallen
2
Draws
2
Grasshoppers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 6, Grasshoppers have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Grasshoppers 2-0 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 63%, Grasshoppers 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (FC ST. Gallen) and 47% (Grasshoppers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grasshoppers in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / Grasshoppers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play Grasshoppers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 53% of Grasshoppers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 47% of Grasshoppers's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Grasshoppers in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC ST. Gallen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 25, as FC ST. Gallen and Grasshoppers drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.05 xG and Grasshoppers 1.55 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Grasshoppers landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Grasshoppers attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 48% | Draw 24% | Grasshoppers 28%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 56%, Grasshoppers 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Grasshoppers's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC ST. Gallen arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.