FC Zurich 2-1 FC Thun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Thun at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Zurich vs FC Thun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Zurich host FC Thun at Letzigrund Stadion in Super League (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 21 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
FC Zurich — last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Zurich's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, FC Thun have recorded 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
FC Thun's form when playing away from home: 9W 0D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Thun — 2.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from FC Zurich's last 10 home games and FC Thun's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for FC Zurich, 2 for FC Thun and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2025, ended FC Zurich 2–4 FC Thun — a FC Thun win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Zurich in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Thun in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Zurich 70% and FC Thun 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Zurich 80% | FC Thun 80%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Zurich surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while FC Thun have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Zurich 1.23 xG and FC Thun 2.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Zurich attack 0.947 / defence 1.282 | FC Thun attack 1.294 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.500. FC Thun bring a tight defence (rating 0.770, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling FC Zurich's projected output down. FC Thun have an above-average attack rating of 1.294, which lifts their away xG to 2.49. FC Zurich's defence rating of 1.282 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Thun's projected output up. Data: built from FC Zurich's last 63 games and FC Thun's last 30.
Result probabilities: FC Zurich 15% | Draw 22% | FC Thun 63%. Fair-value odds: FC Zurich 6.49 | Draw 4.63 | FC Thun 1.59. The model has a clear lean to FC Thun (63%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.23 / 2.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Thun are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Zurich's last 10 home games and FC Thun's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Zurich 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Thun 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Zurich vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, matchday 31 | Venue: Letzigrund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Zurich 15% | Draw 22% | FC Thun 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG FC Zurich 1.23 / FC Thun 2.49 • Poisson strength factors: FC Zurich attack 0.947 / def 1.282 | FC Thun attack 1.294 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.690 / away 1.500 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
FC Zurich xG
Expected Goals
2.49
FC Thun xG
67%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Zurich vs FC Thun FAQs
What time does FC Zurich vs FC Thun kick off?
FC Zurich vs FC Thun kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Letzigrund Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Zurich vs FC Thun?
FC Zurich 2 - 1 FC Thun.
Where is FC Zurich vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Letzigrund Stadion.
What competition is FC Zurich vs FC Thun part of?
FC Zurich vs FC Thun is a Super League fixture (matchday 31) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Zurich vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives FC Zurich a 15% chance of winning, FC Thun a 63% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Zurich vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Zurich and FC Thun will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Zurich vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Zurich's attack rating (0.95) and FC Thun's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Thun's attack versus FC Zurich's defence, projects 2.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Zurich's last 63 games and FC Thun's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 1-3 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
15%
6.49
22%
4.63
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.7%
Away win
0 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
FC Zurich xG
Total xG
3.72
2.49
FC Thun xG
6.49
15%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
8%
12.04
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
1%
78.11
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Zurich vs FC Thun Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Zurich vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are FC Zurich and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for FC Zurich and 2.49 for FC Thun, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Zurich vs FC Thun?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Zurich's recent record stands at 9W 4D 17L from 30 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
FC Thun, meanwhile, have gone 23W 2D 5L across 30 games — 2.37 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Thun by 1.34 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Zurich heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Zurich have managed 5W 1D 8L from their last 14 home games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Thun's away record stands at 12W 0D 2L across their last 14 away games, a 2.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Zurich are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 2.37 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Zurich have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; FC Thun in 73%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Zurich
Current Season
FC Thun
Current Season
FC Zurich (Home) vs FC Thun (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Zurich
Current Season
FC Thun
Current Season
❓ FC Zurich vs FC Thun Form FAQs
What form are FC Zurich and FC Thun in coming into this match?
FC Zurich have gone 9W 4D 17L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 23W 2D 5L in their last 30 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Zurich at home or FC Thun away?
FC Thun's away record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Zurich at home: 1.14 PPG; FC Thun away: 2.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2025. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Zurich have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Aug 2025, when FC Thun won FC Zurich 0-4 FC Thun.
FC Zurich's record when hosting FC Thun specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Zurich
0
Draws
2
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Zurich vs FC Thun H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Zurich and FC Thun?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Zurich have won 2, FC Thun have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Zurich and FC Thun last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: FC Zurich 4-2 FC Thun.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Zurich at 71%, FC Thun at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for FC Zurich and 86% for FC Thun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Zurich home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Zurich vs FC Thun Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Zurich and FC Thun matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Zurich's games and 71% of FC Thun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Zurich and FC Thun matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of FC Zurich's matches and 86% of FC Thun's.
Do FC Zurich and FC Thun matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of FC Zurich's recent matches and 79% of FC Thun's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Zurich defy the odds to beat FC Thun 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Zurich beat FC Thun 2-1 at Letzigrund Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 1.23 xG and FC Thun 2.49 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Thun landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 0.95 / defence 1.28 against FC Thun attack 1.29 / defence 0.77, drawn from 63/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 15% | Draw 22% | FC Thun 63%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a FC Zurich win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 80%, FC Thun 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Zurich's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
FC Thun's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with FC Zurich winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Zurich (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.