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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as FC Sion take on FC ST. Gallen.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 31 as FC Sion welcome FC ST. Gallen to Stade de Tourbillon. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, FC Sion have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

FC Sion's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Stade de Tourbillon this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Tourbillon. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FC Sion are significantly better at Stade de Tourbillon than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, FC ST. Gallen stand at 4W 6D 0L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

FC ST. Gallen away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (FC Sion) versus 1.80 (FC ST. Gallen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, FC ST. Gallen have the better historical record — 4 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for FC Sion.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2025, ended 1–3 with FC ST. Gallen winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC ST. Gallen have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

FC Sion in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

FC ST. Gallen in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 59% and FC ST. Gallen 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 46% | FC ST. Gallen 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.15 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.834 / defence 0.651 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.214 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.468. FC ST. Gallen's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. FC ST. Gallen have an above-average attack strength of 1.214 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. FC Sion's defence rating of 0.651 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 FC Sion games / 63 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Sion 32% | Draw 35% | FC ST. Gallen 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | FC ST. Gallen 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 50% | FC ST. Gallen 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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