FC Zurich 1-2 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sion at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Zurich vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Zurich host FC Sion at Letzigrund Stadion in Super League (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
FC Zurich — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Zurich's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Sion stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, FC Sion have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Sion — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from FC Zurich's last 10 home games and FC Sion's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, FC Zurich have won 3, FC Sion 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended FC Zurich 2–2 FC Sion — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Zurich in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Sion in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Zurich 64% and FC Sion 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Zurich 69% | FC Sion 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Zurich surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while FC Sion have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Zurich 1.51 xG and FC Sion 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Zurich attack 0.963 / defence 1.273 | FC Sion attack 0.859 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.491. FC Zurich's defence rating of 1.273 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Sion's projected output up. Data: built from FC Zurich's last 62 games and FC Sion's last 62.
Result probabilities: FC Zurich 33% | Draw 29% | FC Sion 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Zurich 3.04 | Draw 3.48 | FC Sion 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.51 / 1.63) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Sion at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Zurich's last 10 home games and FC Sion's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Zurich 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Sion 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Zurich vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, matchday 30 | Venue: Letzigrund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Zurich 33% | Draw 29% | FC Sion 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG FC Zurich 1.51 / FC Sion 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: FC Zurich attack 0.963 / def 1.273 | FC Sion attack 0.859 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.491 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
FC Zurich xG
Expected Goals
1.63
FC Sion xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Zurich vs FC Sion FAQs
What time does FC Zurich vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Zurich vs FC Sion kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Letzigrund Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Zurich vs FC Sion?
FC Zurich 1 - 2 FC Sion.
Where is FC Zurich vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Letzigrund Stadion.
What competition is FC Zurich vs FC Sion part of?
FC Zurich vs FC Sion is a Super League fixture (matchday 30) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Zurich vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Zurich a 33% chance of winning, FC Sion a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Zurich vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FC Zurich and FC Sion will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Zurich vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Zurich's attack rating (0.96) and FC Sion's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC Zurich's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Zurich's last 62 games and FC Sion's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
33%
3.04
29%
3.48
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
FC Zurich xG
Total xG
3.14
1.63
FC Sion xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
6%
15.49
8%
11.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Zurich vs FC Sion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Zurich vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are FC Zurich and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for FC Zurich and 1.63 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Zurich vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, FC Zurich have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 24W 12D 31L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
FC Sion's form line: 21W 23D 23L from 67 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Zurich on 1.25 PPG, FC Sion on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Zurich have posted 1.36 PPG from their last 33 home games (13W 6D 14L).
On the road, FC Sion have gone 6W 10D 17L from their last 33 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Sion's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Zurich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Zurich are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.31 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Zurich have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Zurich
Current Season
FC Sion
Current Season
FC Zurich (Home) vs FC Sion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Zurich
Current Season
FC Sion
Current Season
❓ FC Zurich vs FC Sion Form FAQs
What form are FC Zurich and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Zurich have gone 24W 12D 31L in their last 67 games (1.25 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 21W 23D 23L in their last 67 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Zurich at home or FC Sion away?
FC Zurich's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Zurich at home: 1.36 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from February 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
FC Zurich's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Zurich
3
Draws
4
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Zurich vs FC Sion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Zurich and FC Sion?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Zurich have won 3, FC Sion have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Zurich and FC Sion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: FC Sion 1-1 FC Zurich.
Who has won more matches between FC Zurich and FC Sion?
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Zurich 64%, FC Sion 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FC Zurich) and 48% (FC Sion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Zurich home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Zurich vs FC Sion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Zurich and FC Sion matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FC Zurich's games and 61% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Zurich and FC Sion matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Zurich's matches and 48% of FC Sion's.
Do FC Zurich and FC Sion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of FC Zurich's recent matches and 76% of FC Sion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Sion edge out FC Zurich 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat FC Zurich 1-2 at Letzigrund Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 1.51 xG and FC Sion 1.63 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 0.96 / defence 1.27 against FC Sion attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 33% | Draw 29% | FC Sion 38%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 69%, FC Sion 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Zurich's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
FC Sion's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Zurich 1.25 PPG, FC Sion 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.