🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates FC Thun at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees BSC Young Boys travel to Stockhorn Arena to take on FC Thun. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 January 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Thun stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC Thun at Stockhorn Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

BSC Young Boys — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

FC Thun are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Thun, 1 for BSC Young Boys and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 2–4 with BSC Young Boys winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

FC Thun in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BSC Young Boys in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 70% and BSC Young Boys 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 75% | BSC Young Boys 75%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 2.48 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 1.115 / defence 1.000 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.108 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.537. BSC Young Boys bring a strong defensive rating of 1.359 — this is suppressing FC Thun's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 FC Thun games / 53 BSC Young Boys games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Thun 55% | Draw 19% | BSC Young Boys 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 1.82 | Draw 5.26 | BSC Young Boys 3.85. The model has a clear lean to FC Thun (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.18. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.18 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.48 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, FC Thun are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 4.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates corroborate: FC Thun 70% | BSC Young Boys 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights