FC Thun 4-1 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Thun at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees BSC Young Boys travel to Stockhorn Arena to take on FC Thun. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 January 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Thun stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Thun at Stockhorn Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
BSC Young Boys — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Thun are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Thun, 1 for BSC Young Boys and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 2–4 with BSC Young Boys winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Thun in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BSC Young Boys in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 70% and BSC Young Boys 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 75% | BSC Young Boys 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 2.48 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 1.115 / defence 1.000 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.108 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.537. BSC Young Boys bring a strong defensive rating of 1.359 — this is suppressing FC Thun's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 FC Thun games / 53 BSC Young Boys games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 55% | Draw 19% | BSC Young Boys 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 1.82 | Draw 5.26 | BSC Young Boys 3.85. The model has a clear lean to FC Thun (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.18. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.18 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.48 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Thun are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates corroborate: FC Thun 70% | BSC Young Boys 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jan 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 55% | Draw 19% | BSC Young Boys 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 75% | xG FC Thun 2.48 / BSC Young Boys 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 1.115 / def 1.000 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.108 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.537 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.70
BSC Young Boys xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 25 January 2026 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys?
FC Thun 4 - 1 BSC Young Boys.
Where is FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys part of?
FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 55% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 26% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both FC Thun and BSC Young Boys will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and BSC Young Boys?
Record (1 meetings): FC Thun 0W | Draws 0 | BSC Young Boys 1W.
What form are FC Thun and BSC Young Boys in?
FC Thun (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. BSC Young Boys (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Thun's attack rating (1.11) and BSC Young Boys's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BSC Young Boys's attack versus FC Thun's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.3%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
55%
1.83
19%
5.13
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
3 – 1
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
FC Thun xG
Total xG
4.18
1.70
BSC Young Boys xG
1.83
55%
Home win
5.13
19%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.03
Clean Sheet
18%
5.49
8%
11.94
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
2%
46.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are FC Thun and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.70 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 4.18.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, FC Thun have picked up 2.15 PPG on a 14W 1D 5L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BSC Young Boys's form line: 8W 5D 7L from 20 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for BSC Young Boys is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Thun are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against BSC Young Boys.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Thun have posted 1.90 PPG from 10 outings (6W 1D 3L).
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Thun are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 1.95 scored and 2.05 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; BSC Young Boys in 65%.
Last 20 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Blended
BSC Young Boys
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 14W 1D 5L in their last 20 games (2.15 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 8W 5D 7L in their last 20 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or BSC Young Boys away?
FC Thun's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 1.90 PPG; BSC Young Boys away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Thun and BSC Young Boys runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
BSC Young Boys have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2026, when BSC Young Boys won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Thun's record when hosting BSC Young Boys specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Thun
0
Draws
3
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and BSC Young Boys?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 2, BSC Young Boys have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Thun 0-6 BSC Young Boys.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and BSC Young Boys?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Thun at 70%, BSC Young Boys at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for FC Thun and 80% for BSC Young Boys. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BSC Young Boys in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play BSC Young Boys?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC Thun's games and 70% of BSC Young Boys's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs BSC Young Boys usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC Thun's matches and 80% of BSC Young Boys's.
Do FC Thun and BSC Young Boys tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, BSC Young Boys in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Thun run riot with a 4-1 hammering of BSC Young Boys.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat BSC Young Boys 4-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 2.48 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.70 xG, a combined 4.18. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC Thun beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 1.11 / defence 1.00 against BSC Young Boys attack 1.11 / defence 1.36, drawn from 20/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 55% | Draw 19% | BSC Young Boys 26%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 75%, BSC Young Boys 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Thun's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.45. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Thun (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.