BSC Young Boys 1-3 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BSC Young Boys at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 20 as BSC Young Boys welcome Lausanne to Stadion Wankdorf. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 January 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
BSC Young Boys — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BSC Young Boys at Stadion Wankdorf this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — BSC Young Boys are significantly better at Stadion Wankdorf than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Lausanne have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (BSC Young Boys) versus 1.50 (Lausanne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. BSC Young Boys register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lausanne in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for BSC Young Boys, 3 for Lausanne and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–5 with Lausanne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
BSC Young Boys in-play and half-time data (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BSC Young Boys 61% versus Lausanne 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BSC Young Boys 63% | Lausanne 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BSC Young Boys 1.42 xG and Lausanne 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BSC Young Boys attack 1.188 / defence 1.037 | Lausanne attack 0.760 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.505. Lausanne's defence strength of 0.716 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 BSC Young Boys games / 52 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 42% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 31%. Fair-value odds: BSC Young Boys 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Lausanne 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BSC Young Boys at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BSC Young Boys offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BSC Young Boys 60% | Lausanne 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Wankdorf • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 42% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG BSC Young Boys 1.42 / Lausanne 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: BSC Young Boys attack 1.188 / def 1.037 | Lausanne attack 0.760 / def 0.716 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.505 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
BSC Young Boys xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Lausanne xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne kick off?
BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Stadion Wankdorf.
What was the final score in BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
BSC Young Boys 1 - 3 Lausanne.
Where is BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wankdorf.
What competition is BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne part of?
BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives BSC Young Boys a 42% chance of winning, Lausanne a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both BSC Young Boys and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and Lausanne?
Record (7 meetings): BSC Young Boys 3W | Draws 1 | Lausanne 3W.
What form are BSC Young Boys and Lausanne in?
BSC Young Boys (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Lausanne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BSC Young Boys's attack rating (1.19) and Lausanne's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus BSC Young Boys's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
42%
2.36
26%
3.83
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
BSC Young Boys xG
Total xG
2.61
1.19
Lausanne xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are BSC Young Boys and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 1.19 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
BSC Young Boys's recent record stands at 25W 15D 17L from 57 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for BSC Young Boys is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 20L across 57 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BSC Young Boys on 1.58 PPG, Lausanne on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, BSC Young Boys have managed 18W 6D 3L from 27 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — BSC Young Boys are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lausanne's away record stands at 5W 12D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BSC Young Boys come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BSC Young Boys are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.58 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BSC Young Boys have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BSC Young Boys
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BSC Young Boys and Lausanne in coming into this match?
BSC Young Boys have gone 25W 15D 17L in their last 57 games (1.58 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 20W 17D 20L in their last 57 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BSC Young Boys at home or Lausanne away?
BSC Young Boys's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BSC Young Boys at home: 2.22 PPG; Lausanne away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BSC Young Boys and Lausanne runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BSC Young Boys's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BSC Young Boys
2
Draws
4
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, BSC Young Boys have won 4, Lausanne have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BSC Young Boys and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Lausanne 2-2 BSC Young Boys.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BSC Young Boys 67%, Lausanne 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (BSC Young Boys) and 48% (Lausanne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BSC Young Boys home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BSC Young Boys play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of BSC Young Boys's games and 56% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of BSC Young Boys's matches and 48% of Lausanne's.
Do BSC Young Boys and Lausanne tend to score early?
BSC Young Boys have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lausanne cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over BSC Young Boys.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat BSC Young Boys 1-3 at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 1.42 xG and Lausanne 1.19 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lausanne outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.19 / defence 1.04 against Lausanne attack 0.76 / defence 0.72, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 42% | Draw 26% | Lausanne 31%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Lausanne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 63%, Lausanne 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BSC Young Boys 1.58 PPG, Lausanne 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.