Grasshoppers 1-3 FC Thun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Thun at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grasshoppers vs FC Thun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Grasshoppers welcome FC Thun to Letzigrund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Grasshoppers — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Grasshoppers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grasshoppers's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Letzigrund Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Thun stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Thun's away record: 7W 0D 2L from 9 road trips in Super League this season (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.11 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. FC Thun's 2.10 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Grasshoppers's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Grasshoppers register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Thun in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Grasshoppers, 0 for FC Thun and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Grasshoppers in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC Thun in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grasshoppers 58% and FC Thun 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Grasshoppers 58% | FC Thun 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grasshoppers 1.33 xG and FC Thun 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grasshoppers attack 0.897 / defence 0.976 | FC Thun attack 1.084 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.522. Data: 52 Grasshoppers games / 19 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grasshoppers 32% | Draw 24% | FC Thun 44%. Fair-value odds: Grasshoppers 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | FC Thun 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Thun at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Thun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Grasshoppers 60% | FC Thun 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grasshoppers vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Letzigrund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grasshoppers 32% | Draw 24% | FC Thun 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Grasshoppers 1.33 / FC Thun 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Grasshoppers attack 0.897 / def 0.976 | FC Thun attack 1.084 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.522 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Grasshoppers xG
Expected Goals
1.61
FC Thun xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grasshoppers vs FC Thun kick off?
Grasshoppers vs FC Thun kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Letzigrund Stadion.
What was the final score in Grasshoppers vs FC Thun?
Grasshoppers 1 - 3 FC Thun.
Where is Grasshoppers vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Letzigrund Stadion.
What competition is Grasshoppers vs FC Thun part of?
Grasshoppers vs FC Thun is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Grasshoppers vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives Grasshoppers a 32% chance of winning, FC Thun a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grasshoppers vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Grasshoppers and FC Thun will score (BTTS).
Will Grasshoppers vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grasshoppers and FC Thun?
Record (3 meetings): Grasshoppers 1W | Draws 2 | FC Thun 0W.
What form are Grasshoppers and FC Thun in?
Grasshoppers (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. FC Thun (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Grasshoppers's attack at 0.90x the league average against FC Thun's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Thun's attack versus Grasshoppers's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
32%
3.16
24%
4.11
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Grasshoppers xG
Total xG
2.94
1.61
FC Thun xG
3.16
32%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
6%
15.82
12%
8.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grasshoppers vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Grasshoppers and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Grasshoppers and 1.61 for FC Thun, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Grasshoppers vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Grasshoppers's recent record stands at 4W 5D 10L from 19 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Grasshoppers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Thun, meanwhile, have gone 13W 1D 5L across 19 games — 2.11 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Thun by 1.22 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Grasshoppers heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Grasshoppers have managed 2W 3D 4L from 9 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Thun's away record stands at 7W 0D 2L across 9 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Grasshoppers are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 2.05 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grasshoppers
Blended
FC Thun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grasshoppers and FC Thun in coming into this match?
Grasshoppers have gone 4W 5D 10L in their last 19 games (0.89 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 13W 1D 5L in their last 19 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grasshoppers at home or FC Thun away?
FC Thun's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grasshoppers at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Thun away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC Thun have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2026, when FC Thun won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grasshoppers's record when hosting FC Thun specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Grasshoppers
2
Draws
2
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grasshoppers and FC Thun?
From 5 meetings on record, Grasshoppers have won 1, FC Thun have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grasshoppers and FC Thun last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Thun 5-1 Grasshoppers.
Who has won more matches between Grasshoppers and FC Thun?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Grasshoppers at 67%, FC Thun at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Grasshoppers and 78% for FC Thun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Thun in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grasshoppers home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grasshoppers play FC Thun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Grasshoppers's games and 67% of FC Thun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grasshoppers vs FC Thun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Grasshoppers's matches and 78% of FC Thun's.
Do Grasshoppers and FC Thun tend to score early?
Grasshoppers have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, FC Thun in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Thun cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Grasshoppers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat Grasshoppers 1-3 at Letzigrund Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grasshoppers 1.33 xG and FC Thun 1.61 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Thun outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grasshoppers attack 0.90 / defence 0.98 against FC Thun attack 1.08 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grasshoppers 32% | Draw 24% | FC Thun 44%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grasshoppers 58%, FC Thun 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grasshoppers's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
FC Thun's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Thun (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.