🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates FC Thun at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grasshoppers vs FC Thun encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Grasshoppers welcome FC Thun to Letzigrund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 15:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Grasshoppers — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Grasshoppers, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Grasshoppers's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Letzigrund Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Thun stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC Thun's away record: 7W 0D 2L from 9 road trips in Super League this season (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.11 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. FC Thun's 2.10 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Grasshoppers's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Grasshoppers register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Thun in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Grasshoppers, 0 for FC Thun and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Grasshoppers in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

FC Thun in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grasshoppers 58% and FC Thun 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Grasshoppers 58% | FC Thun 74%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grasshoppers 1.33 xG and FC Thun 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grasshoppers attack 0.897 / defence 0.976 | FC Thun attack 1.084 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.522. Data: 52 Grasshoppers games / 19 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Grasshoppers 32% | Draw 24% | FC Thun 44%. Fair-value odds: Grasshoppers 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | FC Thun 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Thun at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Thun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Grasshoppers 60% | FC Thun 67% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights