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Poisson rates FC Thun at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun encounter.

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Match Analysis

FC Basel 1893 host FC Thun at St. Jakob-Park in Super League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 15:30 UTC.

Form Guide

FC Basel 1893 — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at St. Jakob-Park, FC Basel 1893 have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Super League games this season, FC Thun have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC Thun away from home this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. FC Thun's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of FC Basel 1893's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Basel 1893 have won 1, FC Thun 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 3–1 with FC Basel 1893 winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

FC Basel 1893 trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

FC Thun trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 62% and FC Thun 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Basel 1893 57% | FC Thun 76%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.17 xG and FC Thun 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.777 / defence 0.649 | FC Thun attack 1.149 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.727 / away 1.597. FC Basel 1893's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Basel 1893's defence rating of 0.649 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 FC Basel 1893 games / 21 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 35% | Draw 29% | FC Thun 36%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | FC Thun 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates FC Thun as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Thun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: FC Basel 1893 50% | FC Thun 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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