FC Winterthur 2-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lausanne at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Winterthur vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lausanne make the trip to Stadion Schützenwiese to face FC Winterthur in Super League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Winterthur's overall Super League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Winterthur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Winterthur have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadion Schützenwiese — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Lausanne have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Lausanne arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Winterthur have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Lausanne in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for FC Winterthur, 2 for Lausanne and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 2–3 with Lausanne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Winterthur — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Lausanne — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Winterthur 53% versus Lausanne 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Winterthur 64% | Lausanne 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Winterthur 1.11 xG and Lausanne 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Winterthur attack 0.940 / defence 1.260 | Lausanne attack 0.860 / defence 0.702. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.602. Lausanne's defence strength of 0.702 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 FC Winterthur games / 54 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Winterthur 24% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 52%. Fair-value odds: FC Winterthur 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Lausanne 1.92. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
FC Winterthur dominate the H2H record, yet Lausanne are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lausanne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Winterthur 80% | Lausanne 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Winterthur vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Schützenwiese • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Winterthur 24% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Winterthur 1.11 / Lausanne 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: FC Winterthur attack 0.940 / def 1.260 | Lausanne attack 0.860 / def 0.702 | league avg home 1.684 / away 1.602 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
FC Winterthur xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Lausanne xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Winterthur vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Winterthur vs Lausanne kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What was the final score in FC Winterthur vs Lausanne?
FC Winterthur 2 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is FC Winterthur vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What competition is FC Winterthur vs Lausanne part of?
FC Winterthur vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Winterthur vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Winterthur a 24% chance of winning, Lausanne a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Winterthur vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Winterthur and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Winterthur vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Winterthur and Lausanne?
Record (7 meetings): FC Winterthur 4W | Draws 1 | Lausanne 2W.
What form are FC Winterthur and Lausanne in?
FC Winterthur (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Lausanne (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Winterthur's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Lausanne's attack (0.86x) against FC Winterthur's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
24%
4.17
24%
4.10
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
FC Winterthur xG
Total xG
2.85
1.74
Lausanne xG
4.17
24%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
4%
23.65
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Winterthur vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Winterthur and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for FC Winterthur and 1.74 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Winterthur vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Winterthur's recent record stands at 13W 11D 34L from 58 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for FC Winterthur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 20L across 58 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lausanne by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Winterthur heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Winterthur have managed 9W 5D 14L from 28 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 6W 12D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Winterthur are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.57 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Winterthur
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Winterthur and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Winterthur have gone 13W 11D 34L in their last 58 games (0.86 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 20W 18D 20L in their last 58 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Winterthur at home or Lausanne away?
FC Winterthur's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Winterthur at home: 1.14 PPG; Lausanne away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Winterthur won 2-5 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Winterthur have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lausanne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Winterthur
1
Draws
3
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Winterthur and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Winterthur have won 6, Lausanne have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Winterthur and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when FC Winterthur 2-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC Winterthur and Lausanne?
FC Winterthur have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Winterthur see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Winterthur 50%, Lausanne 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Winterthur) and 50% (Lausanne).
On the defensive side: FC Winterthur keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Lausanne in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Winterthur home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Winterthur play Lausanne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Winterthur's recent matches and 57% of Lausanne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Winterthur vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Winterthur's recent games and 50% of Lausanne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Winterthur and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC Winterthur have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Winterthur defy the odds to beat Lausanne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Winterthur beat Lausanne 2-1 at Stadion Schützenwiese, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 1.11 xG and Lausanne 1.74 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Winterthur beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.94 / defence 1.26 against Lausanne attack 0.86 / defence 0.70, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 24% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 52%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a FC Winterthur win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 64%, Lausanne 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Winterthur's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lausanne arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with FC Winterthur winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.