Vasteras SK FK 2-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vasteras SK FK and Orebro SK meet at Iver Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 May 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vasteras SK FK's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Iver Arena, Vasteras SK FK have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Iver Arena this season.
Orebro SK (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Orebro SK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Orebro SK's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Vasteras SK FK against 1.80 for Orebro SK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Vasteras SK FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Orebro SK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 57% versus Orebro SK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 50% | Orebro SK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.28 xG and Orebro SK 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.839 / defence 1.184 | Orebro SK attack 0.830 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.404. Data: 34 Vasteras SK FK games / 4 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 35% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 39%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Orebro SK 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orebro SK as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orebro SK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Vasteras SK FK 70% | Orebro SK 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 35% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.28 / Orebro SK 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.839 / def 1.184 | Orebro SK attack 0.830 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Orebro SK xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Orebro SK kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Orebro SK kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Orebro SK?
Vasteras SK FK 2 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Orebro SK part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 35% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Orebro SK in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vasteras SK FK's attack rating (0.84) and Orebro SK's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.83x) against Vasteras SK FK's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
35%
2.87
26%
3.85
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.66
1.38
Orebro SK xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
9%
11.41
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.38 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Vasteras SK FK have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 8W 12D 10L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Orebro SK's form line: 12W 6D 12L from 30 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. Orebro SK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Vasteras SK FK against 1.40 for Orebro SK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vasteras SK FK have posted 1.27 PPG from 15 outings (4W 7D 4L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 4W 3D 8L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.23 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Current Season
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 8W 12D 10L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 12W 6D 12L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Orebro SK away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.27 PPG; Orebro SK away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 12 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Vasteras SK FK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orebro SK won 5-2 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasteras SK FK have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Orebro SK?
From 6 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 4, Orebro SK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 12 August 2025, when Vasteras SK FK 2-1 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Orebro SK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 67%, Orebro SK 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Vasteras SK FK and 53% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 27% of games; Orebro SK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 47% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 53% of Orebro SK's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasteras SK FK defy the odds to beat Orebro SK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Orebro SK 2-1 at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.28 xG and Orebro SK 1.38 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.84 / defence 1.18 against Orebro SK attack 0.83 / defence 1.12, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 35% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 39%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 50%, Orebro SK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Orebro SK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.20 PPG, Orebro SK 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.