Orgryte IS 0-2 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utsikten at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Utsikten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orgryte IS and Utsikten meet at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Orgryte IS's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.25 xG and Utsikten 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.996 / defence 1.003 | Utsikten attack 0.929 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.397. Data: 34 Orgryte IS games / 4 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 35% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 38%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Utsikten 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utsikten are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utsikten if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 35% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Orgryte IS 1.25 / Utsikten 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.996 / def 1.003 | Utsikten attack 0.929 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Utsikten xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Utsikten kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Utsikten kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Utsikten?
Orgryte IS 0 - 2 Utsikten.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Utsikten part of?
Orgryte IS vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 35% chance of winning, Utsikten a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Orgryte IS and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Utsikten?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orgryte IS and Utsikten in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Orgryte IS home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.00x the league average against Utsikten's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Utsikten's attack (0.93x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
35%
2.82
27%
3.75
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.55
1.30
Utsikten xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
11%
9.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.30 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Pre-Season
Utsikten
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Orgryte IS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Utsikten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
3
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Utsikten?
From 8 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 3, Utsikten have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Utsikten 1-2 Orgryte IS.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Utsikten cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Orgryte IS 0-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.25 xG and Utsikten 1.30 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Orgryte IS fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against Utsikten attack 0.93 / defence 0.91, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 35% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 38%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.