Norrby IF 0-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Norrby IF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Borås Arena to take on Norrby IF. The game is scheduled for Monday 2 May 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Norrby IF — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Norrby IF's home record at Borås Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Norrby IF are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Norrby IF, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Norrby IF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norrby IF 53% versus Landskrona BoIS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norrby IF 43% | Landskrona BoIS 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.20 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.791 / defence 1.014 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.684 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.410. Norrby IF's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Norrby IF games / 34 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 41% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 30%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Landskrona BoIS 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Norrby IF at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Norrby IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Norrby IF 60% | Landskrona BoIS 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 2 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 41% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Norrby IF 1.20 / Landskrona BoIS 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.791 / def 1.014 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.684 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Landskrona BoIS xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 2 May 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Norrby IF 0 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 41% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (2 meetings): Norrby IF 0W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Norrby IF's attack rating (0.79) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Norrby IF's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
41%
2.43
29%
3.44
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.18
0.98
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Norrby IF and 0.98 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Norrby IF come into this having played 30 games, going 13W 9D 8L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (13W 5D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Norrby IF on 1.60 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Norrby IF's home form reads 6W 5D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 0.60 points per game from 15 outings (2W 3D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norrby IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Norrby IF are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.37 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 13W 9D 8L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 13W 5D 12L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Norrby IF's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 1.53 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Norrby IF or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Norrby IF's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Norrby IF
3
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS?
From 5 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 0, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 53%, Landskrona BoIS 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Norrby IF) and 53% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Norrby IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Norrby IF have failed to score in 27% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Norrby IF's games and 60% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Norrby IF's recent games and 53% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Norrby IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS finished level at 0-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.20 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.98 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Norrby IF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.79 / defence 1.01 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.68 / defence 1.12, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 41% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 30%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 43%, Landskrona BoIS 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norrby IF 1.60 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Norrby IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.