Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken meet at Paskbergsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Varbergs BoIS FC's overall Superettan record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record at Paskbergsvallen: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sandviken have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sandviken have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Varbergs BoIS FC's favour (2.10 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sandviken in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Varbergs BoIS FC, 2 for Sandviken and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sandviken goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 68% versus Sandviken 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 64% | Sandviken 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.86 xG and Sandviken 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.112 / defence 0.935 | Sandviken attack 0.854 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.335. Data: 47 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 47 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 56% | Draw 23% | Sandviken 21%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Sandviken 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Varbergs BoIS FC (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 70% | Sandviken 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Paskbergsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 56% | Draw 23% | Sandviken 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.86 / Sandviken 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.112 / def 0.935 | Sandviken attack 0.854 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sandviken xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Paskbergsvallen.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 1 Sandviken.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Paskbergsvallen.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 56% chance of winning, Sandviken a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken?
Record (5 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 1W | Draws 2 | Sandviken 2W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Sandviken (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (1.11) and Sandviken's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sandviken's attack (0.85x) against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.44
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.93
1.07
Sandviken xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
3%
30.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.07 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Varbergs BoIS FC's recent record stands at 21W 13D 13L from 47 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandviken, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 20L across 47 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Varbergs BoIS FC against 1.34 for Sandviken. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Varbergs BoIS FC have managed 12W 6D 5L from 23 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sandviken's away record stands at 6W 5D 12L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Varbergs BoIS FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.40 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Sandviken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 21W 13D 13L in their last 47 games (1.62 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 18W 9D 20L in their last 47 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Sandviken away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.83 PPG; Sandviken away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sandviken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
2
Draws
3
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken?
From 6 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, Sandviken have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 61%, Sandviken 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Varbergs BoIS FC and 70% for Sandviken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sandviken in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Sandviken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Varbergs BoIS FC's games and 52% of Sandviken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Varbergs BoIS FC's matches and 70% of Sandviken's.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Sandviken tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sandviken defy the odds to beat Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 at Paskbergsvallen, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.86 xG and Sandviken 1.07 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.94 against Sandviken attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 56% | Draw 23% | Sandviken 21%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Sandviken win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 64%, Sandviken 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Sandviken's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.62 PPG, Sandviken 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Sandviken (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.