Sandviken 5-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandviken at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall meet at Jernvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sandviken have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandviken's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Jernvallen this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sandviken are significantly better at Jernvallen than their overall form suggests.
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Sandviken's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of GIF Sundsvall's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sandviken, 3 for GIF Sundsvall and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Sandviken winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sandviken half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 52% versus GIF Sundsvall 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 63% | GIF Sundsvall 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 2.34 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 1.232 / defence 1.036 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.732 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.396. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Sandviken's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Sandviken games / 46 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 65% | Draw 19% | GIF Sundsvall 15%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | GIF Sundsvall 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sandviken (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
GIF Sundsvall lead the H2H ledger, but Sandviken carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Sandviken as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandviken 60% | GIF Sundsvall 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Jernvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 65% | Draw 19% | GIF Sundsvall 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 59% | xG Sandviken 2.34 / GIF Sundsvall 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 1.232 / def 1.036 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.732 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
1.06
GIF Sundsvall xG
59%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Sandviken 5 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 65% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (5 meetings): Sandviken 1W | Draws 1 | GIF Sundsvall 3W.
What form are Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall in?
Sandviken (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sandviken's attack rating (1.23) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.73x) against Sandviken's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
65%
1.53
19%
5.21
15%
6.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Sandviken xG
Total xG
3.40
1.06
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
6.52
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
10%
10.35
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
1%
67.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Sandviken and 1.06 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sandviken's recent record stands at 17W 9D 20L from 46 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 25L across 46 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Sandviken against 1.07 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sandviken have managed 11W 3D 8L from 22 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 8W 2D 12L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandviken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sandviken are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.07 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 17W 9D 20L in their last 46 games (1.30 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 14W 7D 25L in their last 46 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Sandviken's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 1.64 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Sandviken have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandviken won 5-0 on 1 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandviken have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sandviken
1
Draws
3
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall?
From 6 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 2, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Sandviken 5-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandviken 54%, GIF Sundsvall 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Sandviken) and 50% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Sandviken have failed to score in 32% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sandviken's recent matches and 46% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Sandviken's recent games and 50% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sandviken run riot with a 5-0 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat GIF Sundsvall 5-0 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 2.34 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.06 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Sandviken beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GIF Sundsvall landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 1.23 / defence 1.04 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.73 / defence 1.29, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 65% | Draw 19% | GIF Sundsvall 15%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 63%, GIF Sundsvall 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.30 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock. Sandviken (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.