Ljungskile SK 0-1 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ljungskile SK vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Oddevold travel to Skarsjövallen to take on Ljungskile SK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 August 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ljungskile SK stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ljungskile SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Skarsjövallen, Ljungskile SK have gone 4W 1D 3L this season (8 games, 1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Oddevold — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Oddevold have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Ljungskile SK) versus 1.30 (Oddevold). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ljungskile SK register both teams scoring in 62% of relevant matches, Oddevold in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ljungskile SK, 0 for Oddevold and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ljungskile SK in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Oddevold in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ljungskile SK 65% and Oddevold 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ljungskile SK 53% | Oddevold 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ljungskile SK 1.48 xG and Oddevold 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ljungskile SK attack 0.948 / defence 1.150 | Oddevold attack 1.066 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.355. Data: 17 Ljungskile SK games / 47 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 34% | Draw 24% | Oddevold 42%. Fair-value odds: Ljungskile SK 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Oddevold 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oddevold are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ljungskile SK 62% | Oddevold 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ljungskile SK vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Skarsjövallen • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 34% | Draw 24% | Oddevold 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Ljungskile SK 1.48 / Oddevold 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Ljungskile SK attack 0.948 / def 1.150 | Oddevold attack 1.066 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Ljungskile SK xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Oddevold xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ljungskile SK vs Oddevold kick off?
Ljungskile SK vs Oddevold kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Skarsjövallen.
What was the final score in Ljungskile SK vs Oddevold?
Ljungskile SK 0 - 1 Oddevold.
Where is Ljungskile SK vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Skarsjövallen.
What competition is Ljungskile SK vs Oddevold part of?
Ljungskile SK vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ljungskile SK vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Ljungskile SK a 34% chance of winning, Oddevold a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ljungskile SK vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ljungskile SK and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Ljungskile SK vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Oddevold?
Record (1 meetings): Ljungskile SK 0W | Draws 1 | Oddevold 0W.
What form are Ljungskile SK and Oddevold in?
Ljungskile SK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Oddevold (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ljungskile SK's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Oddevold's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus Ljungskile SK's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
34%
2.92
24%
4.24
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Ljungskile SK xG
Total xG
3.14
1.66
Oddevold xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
7%
15.38
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ljungskile SK vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Ljungskile SK and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Ljungskile SK and 1.66 for Oddevold, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Ljungskile SK vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ljungskile SK come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 5D 6L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Ljungskile SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oddevold sit at 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (5W 7D 5L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ljungskile SK on 1.35 PPG, Oddevold on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ljungskile SK's home form reads 4W 1D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Oddevold have taken 1.50 points per game from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Ljungskile SK are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.65 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ljungskile SK have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Oddevold in 71%.
Last 17 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ljungskile SK
Blended
Oddevold
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ljungskile SK and Oddevold in coming into this match?
Ljungskile SK have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 games (1.35 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 5W 7D 5L in their last 17 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ljungskile SK at home or Oddevold away?
Ljungskile SK's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ljungskile SK at home: 1.62 PPG; Oddevold away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ljungskile SK and Oddevold runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ljungskile SK
1
Draws
1
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Oddevold?
From 2 meetings on record, Ljungskile SK have won 0, Oddevold have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ljungskile SK and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Ljungskile SK 0-1 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Ljungskile SK and Oddevold?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ljungskile SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ljungskile SK at 62%, Oddevold at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Ljungskile SK and 75% for Oddevold. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ljungskile SK home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ljungskile SK play Oddevold?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Ljungskile SK's games and 75% of Oddevold's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ljungskile SK vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ljungskile SK's matches and 75% of Oddevold's.
Do Ljungskile SK and Oddevold tend to score early?
Ljungskile SK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Oddevold edge out Ljungskile SK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat Ljungskile SK 0-1 at Skarsjövallen, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ljungskile SK 1.48 xG and Oddevold 1.66 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ljungskile SK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ljungskile SK attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Oddevold attack 1.07 / defence 1.06, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ljungskile SK 34% | Draw 24% | Oddevold 42%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ljungskile SK 53%, Oddevold 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ljungskile SK's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oddevold's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ljungskile SK 1.35 PPG, Oddevold 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. Ljungskile SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Oddevold (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.