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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Utsikten travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 May 2025, 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

GIF Sundsvall at NP3 Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Utsikten — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Utsikten have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

GIF Sundsvall are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for GIF Sundsvall, 2 for Utsikten and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with GIF Sundsvall winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Utsikten in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 47% versus Utsikten 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 48% | Utsikten 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.52 xG and Utsikten 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.032 / defence 0.927 | Utsikten attack 0.952 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.240. Data: 35 GIF Sundsvall games / 35 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 47% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 27%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Utsikten 3.70. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Utsikten 60% BTTS from recent games.

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