Skövde AIK 1-2 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Skövde AIK at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 6 as Skövde AIK welcome Orebro SK to Södermalms IP. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 May 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Skövde AIK have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Skövde AIK's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Södermalms IP this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Orebro SK — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Orebro SK's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Skövde AIK) versus 1.30 (Orebro SK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Skövde AIK, 0 for Orebro SK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Skövde AIK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Skövde AIK trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Orebro SK trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Skövde AIK 56% versus Orebro SK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 50% | Orebro SK 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.39 xG and Orebro SK 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.984 / defence 1.015 | Orebro SK attack 0.759 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.118. Data: 35 Skövde AIK games / 35 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 49% | Draw 27% | Orebro SK 23%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Orebro SK 4.35. Skövde AIK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Skövde AIK as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Skövde AIK 80% | Orebro SK 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 49% | Draw 27% | Orebro SK 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Skövde AIK 1.39 / Orebro SK 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.984 / def 1.015 | Orebro SK attack 0.759 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Orebro SK xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK?
Skövde AIK 1 - 2 Orebro SK.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK part of?
Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 49% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Skövde AIK and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Orebro SK?
Record (2 meetings): Skövde AIK 1W | Draws 1 | Orebro SK 0W.
What form are Skövde AIK and Orebro SK in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Skövde AIK's attack rating (0.98) and Orebro SK's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Skövde AIK's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.64
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
2.25
0.86
Orebro SK xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
6%
17.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 0.86 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Skövde AIK's recent record stands at 12W 12D 8L from 32 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Orebro SK, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 14L across 32 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Skövde AIK on 1.50 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Skövde AIK have managed 6W 7D 3L from 16 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Orebro SK's away record stands at 4W 5D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Skövde AIK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.09 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 12W 12D 8L in their last 32 games (1.50 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 10W 8D 14L in their last 32 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or Orebro SK away?
Skövde AIK's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.56 PPG; Orebro SK away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Skövde AIK's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Skövde AIK
2
Draws
2
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Orebro SK?
From 6 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 2, Orebro SK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Skövde AIK 2-2 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 56%, Orebro SK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Skövde AIK) and 38% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Orebro SK in 38%; Orebro SK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 44% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Skövde AIK vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 38% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Orebro SK defy the odds to beat Skövde AIK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Skövde AIK 1-2 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.39 xG and Orebro SK 0.86 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Orebro SK outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Orebro SK attack 0.76 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 49% | Draw 27% | Orebro SK 23%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Orebro SK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 50%, Orebro SK 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Orebro SK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Skövde AIK 1.50 PPG, Orebro SK 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.