Skövde AIK 0-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Skövde AIK at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Skövde AIK vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees IK brage travel to Södermalms IP to take on Skövde AIK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 April 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Skövde AIK — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Skövde AIK at Södermalms IP this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, IK brage have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Skövde AIK at 1.10 PPG versus IK brage's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Skövde AIK, 0 for IK brage and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Skövde AIK in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
IK brage in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Skövde AIK 56% and IK brage 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 50% | IK brage 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.70 xG and IK brage 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 1.191 / defence 1.206 | IK brage attack 1.049 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.028. Data: 34 Skövde AIK games / 34 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 47% | Draw 24% | IK brage 29%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | IK brage 3.45. Skövde AIK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Skövde AIK as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Skövde AIK 80% | IK brage 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 47% | Draw 24% | IK brage 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Skövde AIK 1.70 / IK brage 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 1.191 / def 1.206 | IK brage attack 1.049 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
1.30
IK brage xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs IK brage kick off?
Skövde AIK vs IK brage kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs IK brage?
Skövde AIK 0 - 0 IK brage.
Where is Skövde AIK vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs IK brage part of?
Skövde AIK vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 47% chance of winning, IK brage a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Skövde AIK and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and IK brage?
Record (2 meetings): Skövde AIK 0W | Draws 2 | IK brage 0W.
What form are Skövde AIK and IK brage in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. IK brage (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Skövde AIK's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Skövde AIK's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.21
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
3.00
1.30
IK brage xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
5%
18.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 1.30 for IK brage, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Skövde AIK's recent record stands at 12W 12D 8L from 32 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 10L across 32 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Skövde AIK on 1.50 PPG, IK brage on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Skövde AIK have managed 6W 7D 3L from 16 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 7W 5D 4L across 16 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.53 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage in 69%.
Defensively: Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and IK brage in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 12W 12D 8L in their last 32 games (1.50 PPG), while IK brage have gone 13W 9D 10L in their last 32 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or IK brage away?
IK brage's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.56 PPG; IK brage away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, IK brage in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Skövde AIK and IK brage runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Skövde AIK's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Skövde AIK
3
Draws
2
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and IK brage?
From 6 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 1, IK brage have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2024, when IK brage 2-0 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Skövde AIK at 56%, IK brage at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Skövde AIK) and 69% (IK brage). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Skövde AIK's games and 81% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Skövde AIK vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Skövde AIK's matches and 69% of IK brage's.
Do Skövde AIK and IK brage tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, IK brage in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Skövde AIK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK and IK brage finished level at 0-0 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.70 xG and IK brage 1.30 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Skövde AIK fell 1.7 short of their projected output. IK brage landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 1.19 / defence 1.21 against IK brage attack 1.05 / defence 1.06, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 47% | Draw 24% | IK brage 29%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 50%, IK brage 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
IK brage's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Skövde AIK 1.50 PPG, IK brage 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.