Orebro SK 0-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 7 as Orebro SK welcome Orgryte IS to Behrn Arena. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 16 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Orebro SK's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Behrn Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Orgryte IS's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Orebro SK) versus 1.40 (Orgryte IS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Orebro SK have won 0, Orgryte IS 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Orgryte IS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 47% versus Orgryte IS 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 50% | Orgryte IS 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.29 xG and Orgryte IS 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.909 / defence 0.907 | Orgryte IS attack 0.816 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.138. Data: 36 Orebro SK games / 36 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 47% | Draw 29% | Orgryte IS 24%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Orgryte IS 4.17. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Orebro SK 50% | Orgryte IS 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 47% | Draw 29% | Orgryte IS 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Orebro SK 1.29 / Orgryte IS 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.909 / def 0.907 | Orgryte IS attack 0.816 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Orgryte IS xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 16 May 2023 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS?
Orebro SK 0 - 0 Orgryte IS.
Where is Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS part of?
Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 47% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Orebro SK and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Orgryte IS?
Record (2 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 0 | Orgryte IS 2W.
What form are Orebro SK and Orgryte IS in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.48
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.13
0.84
Orgryte IS xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
7%
14.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.84 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orebro SK come into this having played 60 games, going 14W 13D 33L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.32 PPG from 60 outings (18W 25D 17L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Orgryte IS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Orebro SK's home form reads 8W 7D 15L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.33 points per game from 30 outings (10W 10D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.45 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 14W 13D 33L in their last 60 games (0.92 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 18W 25D 17L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Orgryte IS away?
Orgryte IS's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.03 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orebro SK and Orgryte IS runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 17 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Orgryte IS have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2023, when Orebro SK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
2
Draws
5
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Orgryte IS?
From 8 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Orgryte IS have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2025, when Orebro SK 1-3 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Orgryte IS?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 50%, Orgryte IS 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Orebro SK) and 57% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Orebro SK's games and 67% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Orebro SK's recent games and 57% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Orebro SK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK and Orgryte IS finished level at 0-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.29 xG and Orgryte IS 0.84 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Orgryte IS landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.91 / defence 0.91 against Orgryte IS attack 0.82 / defence 0.97, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 47% | Draw 29% | Orgryte IS 24%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 50%, Orgryte IS 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.