Ostersunds FK 3-3 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jämtkraft Arena plays host to Ostersunds FK versus Jonkopings Sodra in Superettan, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ostersunds FK's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ostersunds FK at Jämtkraft Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jämtkraft Arena.
Jonkopings Sodra have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jonkopings Sodra away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ostersunds FK, 1 for Jonkopings Sodra and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ostersunds FK half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Jonkopings Sodra half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 47% versus Jonkopings Sodra 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 45% | Jonkopings Sodra 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.67 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.982 / defence 1.015 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.296 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.055. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Jonkopings Sodra have an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Ostersunds FK games / 35 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 44% | Draw 24% | Jonkopings Sodra 32%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Jonkopings Sodra 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 40% | Jonkopings Sodra 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 44% | Draw 24% | Jonkopings Sodra 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.67 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.982 / def 1.015 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.296 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Jonkopings Sodra xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Ostersunds FK 3 - 3 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 44% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (2 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 1 | Jonkopings Sodra 1W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.98x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jonkopings Sodra's attack (1.30x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
44%
2.26
24%
4.21
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
3.06
1.39
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
6%
16.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.39 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 60 games, going 10W 15D 35L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Jonkopings Sodra sit at 1.23 PPG from 60 outings (19W 17D 24L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five.
Jonkopings Sodra carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 8W 7D 15L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Jonkopings Sodra have taken 1.10 points per game from 30 outings (8W 9D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.25 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Jonkopings Sodra
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 10W 15D 35L in their last 60 games (0.75 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 19W 17D 24L in their last 60 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Jonkopings Sodra's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.03 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Jonkopings Sodra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
3
Draws
1
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 1-1 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 47%, Jonkopings Sodra 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Ostersunds FK) and 43% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 33% of games; Jonkopings Sodra in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Jonkopings Sodra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 57% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 43% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK and Jonkopings Sodra finished level at 3-3 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.67 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.39 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Ostersunds FK beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jonkopings Sodra outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.30 / defence 1.20, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 44% | Draw 24% | Jonkopings Sodra 32%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 45%, Jonkopings Sodra 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jonkopings Sodra arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.