IK brage 2-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IK brage host Landskrona BoIS at Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IK brage have posted 3W 3D 4L at Domnarvsvallen — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — IK brage are significantly better at Domnarvsvallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Landskrona BoIS — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IK brage register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Landskrona BoIS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for IK brage, 2 for Landskrona BoIS and 5 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IK brage in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IK brage 65% and Landskrona BoIS 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 67% | Landskrona BoIS 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.71 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.284 / defence 1.345 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.001 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.396. IK brage carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 IK brage games / 46 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 35% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 42%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Landskrona BoIS 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 90% | Landskrona BoIS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 35% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG IK brage 1.71 / Landskrona BoIS 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.284 / def 1.345 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.001 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Landskrona BoIS xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
IK brage 2 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 35% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both IK brage and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (9 meetings): IK brage 2W | Draws 5 | Landskrona BoIS 2W.
What form are IK brage and Landskrona BoIS in?
IK brage (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IK brage's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
35%
2.85
23%
4.41
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
IK brage xG
Total xG
3.59
1.88
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.85
35%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
15%
6.56
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
5%
18.69
8%
13.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are IK brage and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for IK brage and 1.88 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IK brage come into this having played 46 games, going 15W 13D 18L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.43 PPG from 46 outings (18W 12D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.26 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
IK brage's home form reads 6W 6D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 1.36 points per game from 22 outings (9W 3D 10L).
The Goals Picture
IK brage are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.33 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 15W 13D 18L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 18W 12D 16L in their last 46 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Landskrona BoIS's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.09 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IK brage
5
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS?
From 10 meetings on record, IK brage have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when IK brage 2-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — IK brage at 82%, Landskrona BoIS at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for IK brage and 50% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of IK brage's games and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of IK brage's matches and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do IK brage and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IK brage defy the odds to beat Landskrona BoIS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Landskrona BoIS 2-1 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.71 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.88 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.28 / defence 1.34 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.00 / defence 0.90, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 35% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 42%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 67%, Landskrona BoIS 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.26 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.