Ostersunds FK 0-0 Ljungskile SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Ljungskile SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Ljungskile SK travel to Jamtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jamtkraft Arena: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ljungskile SK stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ljungskile SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ljungskile SK have gone 2W 4D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Ostersunds FK are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ostersunds FK, 0 for Ljungskile SK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ostersunds FK trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Ljungskile SK trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ostersunds FK 63% and Ljungskile SK 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 42% | Ljungskile SK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.49 xG and Ljungskile SK 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.980 / defence 0.835 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.998 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.351. Data: 49 Ostersunds FK games / 19 Ljungskile SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 45% | Draw 28% | Ljungskile SK 28%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Ljungskile SK 3.57. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ostersunds FK at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 50% | Ljungskile SK 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Ljungskile SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Jamtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Monday 24 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 45% | Draw 28% | Ljungskile SK 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.49 / Ljungskile SK 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.980 / def 0.835 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.998 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Ljungskile SK xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Ljungskile SK kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Ljungskile SK kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 24 August 2026 at Jamtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Ljungskile SK?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 0 Ljungskile SK.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Ljungskile SK being played?
The match is being played at Jamtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Ljungskile SK part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Ljungskile SK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Ljungskile SK?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 45% chance of winning, Ljungskile SK a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Ljungskile SK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Ljungskile SK will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Ljungskile SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Ljungskile SK?
Record (1 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 1 | Ljungskile SK 0W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Ljungskile SK in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Ljungskile SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Ljungskile SK's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Ljungskile SK's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.63
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.61
1.13
Ljungskile SK xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
6%
15.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Ljungskile SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Ljungskile SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.13 for Ljungskile SK, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Ljungskile SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 9W 6D 4L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ljungskile SK's form line: 6W 5D 8L from 19 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Ljungskile SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ostersunds FK are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ljungskile SK.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 2.22 PPG from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ljungskile SK have gone 2W 4D 3L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Ljungskile SK are on 1.42 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Ljungskile SK in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Ljungskile SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Ljungskile SK in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 games (1.74 PPG), while Ljungskile SK have gone 6W 5D 8L in their last 19 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Ljungskile SK away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 2.22 PPG; Ljungskile SK away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and Ljungskile SK runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
0
Ljungskile SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Ljungskile SK?
From 2 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Ljungskile SK have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Ljungskile SK last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Ostersunds FK 0-0 Ljungskile SK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ljungskile SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 56%, Ljungskile SK 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ostersunds FK) and 56% (Ljungskile SK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ljungskile SK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Ljungskile SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Ljungskile SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Ostersunds FK's games and 67% of Ljungskile SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Ljungskile SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 56% of Ljungskile SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Ljungskile SK tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ljungskile SK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ostersunds FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 20, as Ostersunds FK and Ljungskile SK drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.49 xG and Ljungskile SK 1.13 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Ljungskile SK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.98 / defence 0.83 against Ljungskile SK attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 45% | Draw 28% | Ljungskile SK 28%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 42%, Ljungskile SK 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Ljungskile SK's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ostersunds FK arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Ljungskile SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.