Ljungskile SK 0-1 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ljungskile SK at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Skarsjövallen plays host to Ljungskile SK versus IFK Varnamo in Superettan, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 29 August 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ljungskile SK have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ljungskile SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ljungskile SK have posted 4W 1D 5L at Skarsjövallen — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IFK Varnamo (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Ljungskile SK, 0.90 for IFK Varnamo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ljungskile SK have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, IFK Varnamo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ljungskile SK 1W, IFK Varnamo 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2026, ended 3–2 with Ljungskile SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ljungskile SK half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
IFK Varnamo half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ljungskile SK 60% versus IFK Varnamo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ljungskile SK 50% | IFK Varnamo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ljungskile SK 1.79 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ljungskile SK attack 0.904 / defence 1.224 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.937 / defence 1.404. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.316. IFK Varnamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.404 — this is suppressing Ljungskile SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Ljungskile SK games / 20 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 43% | Draw 25% | IFK Varnamo 32%. Fair-value odds: Ljungskile SK 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | IFK Varnamo 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ljungskile SK at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ljungskile SK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ljungskile SK 60% | IFK Varnamo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Skarsjövallen • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 43% | Draw 25% | IFK Varnamo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Ljungskile SK 1.79 / IFK Varnamo 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Ljungskile SK attack 0.904 / def 1.224 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.937 / def 1.404 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Ljungskile SK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Ljungskile SK xG
Expected Goals
1.51
IFK Varnamo xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Skarsjövallen.
What was the final score in Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo?
Ljungskile SK 0 - 1 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Skarsjövallen.
What competition is Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Ljungskile SK a 43% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ljungskile SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Ljungskile SK and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and IFK Varnamo?
Record (1 meetings): Ljungskile SK 1W | Draws 0 | IFK Varnamo 0W.
What form are Ljungskile SK and IFK Varnamo in?
Ljungskile SK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ljungskile SK's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (0.94x) against Ljungskile SK's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ljungskile SK Win
43%
2.30
25%
4.03
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Ljungskile SK xG
Total xG
3.30
1.51
IFK Varnamo xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
5%
18.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Ljungskile SK and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Ljungskile SK and 1.51 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Ljungskile SK have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 6W 6D 8L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ljungskile SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo's form line: 5W 4D 11L from 20 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Ljungskile SK against 0.95 for IFK Varnamo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ljungskile SK have posted 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (4W 1D 5L).
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ljungskile SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ljungskile SK are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.20 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ljungskile SK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ljungskile SK
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ljungskile SK and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Ljungskile SK have gone 6W 6D 8L in their last 20 games (1.20 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 5W 4D 11L in their last 20 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ljungskile SK at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Ljungskile SK's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ljungskile SK at home: 1.30 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ljungskile SK
0
Draws
1
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and IFK Varnamo?
From 2 meetings on record, Ljungskile SK have won 1, IFK Varnamo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ljungskile SK and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Ljungskile SK 0-1 IFK Varnamo.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ljungskile SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ljungskile SK 60%, IFK Varnamo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Ljungskile SK and 80% for IFK Varnamo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ljungskile SK have failed to score in 30% of games; IFK Varnamo in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ljungskile SK home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ljungskile SK play IFK Varnamo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ljungskile SK's games and 60% of IFK Varnamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ljungskile SK's matches and 80% of IFK Varnamo's.
Do Ljungskile SK and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Ljungskile SK have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Varnamo defy the odds to beat Ljungskile SK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Ljungskile SK 0-1 at Skarsjövallen, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ljungskile SK 1.79 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.51 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ljungskile SK fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ljungskile SK attack 0.90 / defence 1.22 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.94 / defence 1.40, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ljungskile SK 43% | Draw 25% | IFK Varnamo 32%, with Ljungskile SK to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual IFK Varnamo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ljungskile SK 50%, IFK Varnamo 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ljungskile SK's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ljungskile SK 1.20 PPG, IFK Varnamo 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. Ljungskile SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.