IFK Varnamo 1-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 20 as IFK Varnamo welcome Landskrona BoIS to Finnvedsvallen. Kick-off is set for Monday 24 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, IFK Varnamo have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo's home record at Finnvedsvallen: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Landskrona BoIS are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for IFK Varnamo, 2 for Landskrona BoIS and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2026, ended 0–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Varnamo 63% and Landskrona BoIS 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 63% | Landskrona BoIS 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 0.92 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.749 / defence 1.093 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.943 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.351. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 IFK Varnamo games / 49 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 24% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 47%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Landskrona BoIS 2.13. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: IFK Varnamo 40% | Landskrona BoIS 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 24 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 24% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG IFK Varnamo 0.92 / Landskrona BoIS 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.749 / def 1.093 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.943 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Landskrona BoIS xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 24 August 2026 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 24% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (5 meetings): IFK Varnamo 2W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 2W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Varnamo's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
24%
4.19
29%
3.44
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.31
1.39
Landskrona BoIS xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
6%
16.86
19%
5.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.8 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.39 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, IFK Varnamo have picked up 0.69 PPG on a 8W 10D 31L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 19W 13D 17L from 49 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Landskrona BoIS are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Varnamo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IFK Varnamo have posted 0.83 PPG from 24 outings (4W 8D 12L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 10W 3D 11L from 24 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.16 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.31 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Varnamo have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 8W 10D 31L in their last 49 games (0.69 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 19W 13D 17L in their last 49 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Landskrona BoIS's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 0.83 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
2
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS?
From 6 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when IFK Varnamo 1-1 Landskrona BoIS.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 62%, Landskrona BoIS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (IFK Varnamo) and 50% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 29% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of IFK Varnamo's games and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS finished level at 1-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.92 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.39 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.75 / defence 1.09 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.94 / defence 0.86, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 24% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 47%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 63%, Landskrona BoIS 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.