Ljungskile SK 2-3 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ljungskile SK at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ljungskile SK vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ljungskile SK host Osters IF at Skarsjövallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 August 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ljungskile SK stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ljungskile SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ljungskile SK's home record at Skarsjövallen: 4W 1D 4L from 9 Superettan appearances (1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osters IF — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ljungskile SK 1.30 PPG, Osters IF 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ljungskile SK, 0 for Osters IF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 4–1 with Ljungskile SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ljungskile SK trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Osters IF trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ljungskile SK 61% versus Osters IF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ljungskile SK 50% | Osters IF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ljungskile SK 1.47 xG and Osters IF 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ljungskile SK attack 0.856 / defence 1.093 | Osters IF attack 0.933 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.351. Data: 18 Ljungskile SK games / 18 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 40% | Draw 25% | Osters IF 35%. Fair-value odds: Ljungskile SK 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Osters IF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ljungskile SK as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ljungskile SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ljungskile SK 56% | Osters IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ljungskile SK vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Skarsjövallen • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 40% | Draw 25% | Osters IF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Ljungskile SK 1.47 / Osters IF 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Ljungskile SK attack 0.856 / def 1.093 | Osters IF attack 0.933 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Ljungskile SK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Ljungskile SK xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Osters IF xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ljungskile SK vs Osters IF kick off?
Ljungskile SK vs Osters IF kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Skarsjövallen.
What was the final score in Ljungskile SK vs Osters IF?
Ljungskile SK 2 - 3 Osters IF.
Where is Ljungskile SK vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Skarsjövallen.
What competition is Ljungskile SK vs Osters IF part of?
Ljungskile SK vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ljungskile SK vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Ljungskile SK a 40% chance of winning, Osters IF a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ljungskile SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ljungskile SK vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ljungskile SK and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Ljungskile SK vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Osters IF?
Record (1 meetings): Ljungskile SK 1W | Draws 0 | Osters IF 0W.
What form are Ljungskile SK and Osters IF in?
Ljungskile SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Osters IF (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ljungskile SK's attack rating (0.86) and Osters IF's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus Ljungskile SK's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ljungskile SK Win
40%
2.52
25%
4.00
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Ljungskile SK xG
Total xG
2.85
1.38
Osters IF xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
10%
9.99
8%
12.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ljungskile SK vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Ljungskile SK and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ljungskile SK and 1.38 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Ljungskile SK vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ljungskile SK's recent record stands at 6W 5D 7L from 18 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Ljungskile SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF, meanwhile, have gone 8W 2D 8L across 18 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ljungskile SK on 1.28 PPG, Osters IF on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ljungskile SK have managed 4W 1D 3L from 8 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osters IF's away record stands at 2W 1D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osters IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ljungskile SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ljungskile SK are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ljungskile SK have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ljungskile SK
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ljungskile SK and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Ljungskile SK have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 games (1.28 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 8W 2D 8L in their last 18 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ljungskile SK at home or Osters IF away?
Ljungskile SK's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ljungskile SK at home: 1.62 PPG; Osters IF away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Ljungskile SK or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ljungskile SK have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Osters IF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ljungskile SK and Osters IF runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ljungskile SK
0
Draws
1
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Osters IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Ljungskile SK have won 1, Osters IF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ljungskile SK and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Ljungskile SK 2-3 Osters IF.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ljungskile SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ljungskile SK 62%, Osters IF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Ljungskile SK and 75% for Osters IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ljungskile SK home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ljungskile SK play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Ljungskile SK's games and 62% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ljungskile SK vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ljungskile SK's matches and 75% of Osters IF's.
Do Ljungskile SK and Osters IF tend to score early?
Ljungskile SK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osters IF defy the odds to beat Ljungskile SK 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Ljungskile SK 2-3 at Skarsjövallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ljungskile SK 1.47 xG and Osters IF 1.38 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Osters IF outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ljungskile SK attack 0.86 / defence 1.09 against Osters IF attack 0.93 / defence 1.20, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ljungskile SK 40% | Draw 25% | Osters IF 35%, with Ljungskile SK to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Osters IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ljungskile SK 50%, Osters IF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ljungskile SK's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ljungskile SK 1.28 PPG, Osters IF 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. Ljungskile SK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.