Ostersunds FK 2-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 57%, yet the head-to-head data favours IK brage — this Ostersunds FK vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
IK brage travel to Jämtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK in Superettan (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 27 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 7D 1L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Ostersunds FK's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IK brage — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, IK brage have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Ostersunds FK) versus 0.90 (IK brage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
IK brage have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Ostersunds FK. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 May 2023, ended Ostersunds FK 1–2 IK brage — a IK brage win.
IK brage have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Ostersunds FK trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
IK brage trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 58% versus IK brage 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 43% | IK brage 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.82 xG and IK brage 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.070 / defence 1.161 | IK brage attack 0.648 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.272. IK brage's attack rating of 0.648 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Ostersunds FK's last 53 games and IK brage's last 53.
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 57% | Draw 25% | IK brage 19%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 1.77 | Draw 4.01 | IK brage 5.39. The model has a clear lean to Ostersunds FK (57%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ostersunds FK's last 10 home games and IK brage's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ostersunds FK 100% (last 10 home games) | IK brage 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, matchday 24 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 57% | Draw 25% | IK brage 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Ostersunds FK 1.82 / IK brage 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.070 / def 1.161 | IK brage attack 0.648 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
0.96
IK brage xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ostersunds FK vs IK brage FAQs
What time does Ostersunds FK vs IK brage kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs IK brage kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Wednesday 27 September 2023 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Ostersunds FK 2 - 0 IK brage.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs IK brage part of?
Ostersunds FK vs IK brage is a Superettan fixture (matchday 24) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 57% chance of winning, IK brage a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ostersunds FK and IK brage will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ostersunds FK vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ostersunds FK's last 53 games and IK brage's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
57%
1.77
25%
4.01
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.77
0.96
IK brage xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
3%
33.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ostersunds FK vs IK brage Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 0.96 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 14W 21D 18L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
IK brage's form line: 19W 14D 20L from 53 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.19 PPG, IK brage on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 26 home games (9W 11D 6L).
On the road, IK brage have gone 7W 8D 11L from their last 26 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.32 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage in 60%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
IK brage
Blended
Ostersunds FK (Home) vs IK brage (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ostersunds FK
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Ostersunds FK vs IK brage Form FAQs
What form are Ostersunds FK and IK brage in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 14W 21D 18L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while IK brage have gone 19W 14D 20L in their last 53 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or IK brage away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.46 PPG; IK brage away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 10 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
4
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Ostersunds FK vs IK brage H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IK brage?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ostersunds FK have won 4, IK brage have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and IK brage last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 September 2026: Ostersunds FK 1-1 IK brage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 65%, IK brage 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ostersunds FK) and 58% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: IK brage in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ostersunds FK vs IK brage Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ostersunds FK and IK brage matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Ostersunds FK's games and 62% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ostersunds FK and IK brage matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 58% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and IK brage matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 69% of IK brage's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IK brage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat IK brage 2-0 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.82 xG and IK brage 0.96 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IK brage landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.07 / defence 1.16 against IK brage attack 0.65 / defence 1.08, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 57% | Draw 25% | IK brage 19%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 43%, IK brage 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
IK brage's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.19 PPG, IK brage 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.