IK brage 3-2 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 64%, yet in-form Skövde AIK provide a compelling counter-argument — this IK brage vs Skövde AIK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 25 as IK brage welcome Skövde AIK to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen. Kick-off is set for Monday 2 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IK brage have posted 6W 2D 2L at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — IK brage are significantly better at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Skövde AIK have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Skövde AIK have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Skövde AIK are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IK brage register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Skövde AIK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for IK brage, 0 for Skövde AIK and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
IK brage in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Skövde AIK in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 59% versus Skövde AIK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 59% | Skövde AIK 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 2.34 xG and Skövde AIK 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.021 / defence 0.949 | Skövde AIK attack 0.912 / defence 1.405. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.287. Skövde AIK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.405 — this is suppressing IK brage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 IK brage games / 54 Skövde AIK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 64% | Draw 21% | Skövde AIK 16%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Skövde AIK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to IK brage (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.34 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Skövde AIK (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 70% | Skövde AIK 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 2 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 64% | Draw 21% | Skövde AIK 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 62% | xG IK brage 2.34 / Skövde AIK 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.021 / def 0.949 | Skövde AIK attack 0.912 / def 1.405 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: IK brage (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Skövde AIK xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Skövde AIK kick off?
IK brage vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 2 October 2023 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Skövde AIK?
IK brage 3 - 2 Skövde AIK.
Where is IK brage vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Skövde AIK part of?
IK brage vs Skövde AIK is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 64% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both IK brage and Skövde AIK will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Skövde AIK?
Record (3 meetings): IK brage 0W | Draws 3 | Skövde AIK 0W.
What form are IK brage and Skövde AIK in?
IK brage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Skövde AIK (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IK brage's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Skövde AIK's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.34. The same calculation in reverse, Skövde AIK's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.84
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
IK brage xG
Total xG
3.45
1.11
Skövde AIK xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
10%
10.37
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
2%
66.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are IK brage and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for IK brage and 1.11 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Skövde AIK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IK brage's recent record stands at 19W 14D 21L from 54 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Skövde AIK, meanwhile, have gone 17W 15D 22L across 54 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.31 PPG, Skövde AIK on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IK brage have managed 12W 6D 9L from 27 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Skövde AIK's away record stands at 7W 5D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.30 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Skövde AIK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 19W 14D 21L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 17W 15D 22L in their last 54 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Skövde AIK away?
IK brage's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.56 PPG; Skövde AIK away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
IK brage's record when hosting Skövde AIK specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
IK brage
3
Draws
1
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Skövde AIK?
From 6 meetings on record, IK brage have won 2, Skövde AIK have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Skövde AIK last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2024, when IK brage 2-0 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Skövde AIK?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 59%, Skövde AIK 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for IK brage and 63% for Skövde AIK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Skövde AIK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of IK brage's games and 56% of Skövde AIK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Skövde AIK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of IK brage's matches and 63% of Skövde AIK's.
Do IK brage and Skövde AIK tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Skövde AIK in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Skövde AIK 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Skövde AIK 3-2 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 2.34 xG and Skövde AIK 1.11 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Skövde AIK outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Skövde AIK attack 0.91 / defence 1.41, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 64% | Draw 21% | Skövde AIK 16%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 59%, Skövde AIK 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Skövde AIK's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.31 PPG, Skövde AIK 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.