Gefle IF 3-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gefle IF at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Orebro SK make the trip to Gavlevallen to face Gefle IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gefle IF have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gefle IF's home record at Gavlevallen: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Gefle IF are significantly better at Gavlevallen than their overall form suggests.
Orebro SK's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Orebro SK away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Gefle IF against 1.20 for Orebro SK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Gefle IF, 1 for Orebro SK and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Gefle IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Gefle IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Orebro SK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gefle IF 57% versus Orebro SK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 50% | Orebro SK 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.44 xG and Orebro SK 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 1.140 / defence 1.204 | Orebro SK attack 0.851 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 0.984. Data: 39 Gefle IF games / 39 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 46% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 26%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Orebro SK 3.85. Gefle IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gefle IF are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gefle IF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gefle IF 50% | Orebro SK 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 46% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Gefle IF 1.44 / Orebro SK 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 1.140 / def 1.204 | Orebro SK attack 0.851 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.300 / away 0.984 • Poisson stance: Gefle IF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Orebro SK xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Orebro SK kick off?
Gefle IF vs Orebro SK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Orebro SK?
Gefle IF 3 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is Gefle IF vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Orebro SK part of?
Gefle IF vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 46% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gefle IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gefle IF and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Orebro SK?
Record (2 meetings): Gefle IF 1W | Draws 0 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are Gefle IF and Orebro SK in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gefle IF's attack rating (1.14) and Orebro SK's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.85x) against Gefle IF's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gefle IF Win
46%
2.15
28%
3.61
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
2.45
1.01
Orebro SK xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
6%
16.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.01 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gefle IF's recent record stands at 9W 10D 11L from 30 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five.
Orebro SK, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 12L across 30 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Gefle IF against 1.13 for Orebro SK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gefle IF have managed 7W 4D 4L from 15 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Gefle IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Orebro SK's away record stands at 2W 3D 10L across 15 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Orebro SK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gefle IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gefle IF are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.43 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or Orebro SK away?
Gefle IF's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 1.67 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Gefle IF or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gefle IF have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orebro SK won 4-1 on 17 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gefle IF have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Gefle IF
0
Draws
2
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 2, Orebro SK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Orebro SK 4-1 Gefle IF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gefle IF 53%, Orebro SK 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Gefle IF and 93% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Gefle IF's games and 60% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gefle IF vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Gefle IF's matches and 93% of Orebro SK's.
Do Gefle IF and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gefle IF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gefle IF beat Orebro SK 3-1 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.44 xG and Orebro SK 1.01 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gefle IF beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 1.14 / defence 1.20 against Orebro SK attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 46% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 26%, with Gefle IF to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 50%, Orebro SK 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gefle IF 1.23 PPG, Orebro SK 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gefle IF win broke the near-deadlock. Gefle IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.