Osters IF 1-0 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Osters IF face Sandviken.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sandviken travel to Visma Arena to take on Osters IF in Superettan (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Osters IF — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osters IF at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sandviken stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Sandviken away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Osters IF at 2.10 PPG versus Sandviken's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Osters IF have won 0, Sandviken 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended Osters IF 2–2 Sandviken — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Osters IF in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sandviken in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 57% versus Sandviken 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 50% | Sandviken 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.25 xG and Sandviken 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.740 / defence 0.857 | Sandviken attack 0.962 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.340. Osters IF's attack rating of 0.740 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. Data: built from Osters IF's last 6 games and Sandviken's last 36.
Result probabilities: Osters IF 40% | Draw 28% | Sandviken 33%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.53 | Draw 3.59 | Sandviken 3.07. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Osters IF's last 10 home games and Sandviken's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Osters IF 60% (last 10 home games) | Sandviken 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, matchday 7 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 40% | Draw 28% | Sandviken 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Osters IF 1.25 / Sandviken 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.740 / def 0.857 | Sandviken attack 0.962 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Sandviken xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osters IF vs Sandviken FAQs
What time does Osters IF vs Sandviken kick off?
Osters IF vs Sandviken kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Sandviken?
Osters IF 1 - 0 Sandviken.
Where is Osters IF vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Sandviken part of?
Osters IF vs Sandviken is a Superettan fixture (matchday 7) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 40% chance of winning, Sandviken a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Osters IF and Sandviken will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Osters IF vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 0.74x the league average against Sandviken's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandviken's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Osters IF's last 6 games and Sandviken's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
40%
2.53
28%
3.59
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.35
1.10
Sandviken xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
9%
10.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osters IF vs Sandviken Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.10 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osters IF come into this having played 30 games, going 15W 9D 6L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Sandviken sit at 1.37 PPG from 30 outings (12W 5D 13L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Osters IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Sandviken — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Osters IF's home form reads 9W 4D 2L across their last 15 home games, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandviken have taken 1.20 points per game from their last 15 away games (5W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osters IF are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.20 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Pre-Season
Sandviken
Current Season
Osters IF (Home) vs Sandviken (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osters IF
Pre-Season
Sandviken
Current Season
❓ Osters IF vs Sandviken Form FAQs
What form are Osters IF and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 15W 9D 6L in their last 30 games (1.80 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 12W 5D 13L in their last 30 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Sandviken away?
Osters IF's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 2.07 PPG; Sandviken away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Sandviken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sandviken in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Osters IF's record when hosting Sandviken specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Osters IF
2
Draws
1
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Osters IF vs Sandviken H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Sandviken?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Osters IF have won 1, Sandviken have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Sandviken last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Sandviken 1-1 Osters IF.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 53%, Sandviken 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Osters IF and 67% for Sandviken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sandviken in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osters IF vs Sandviken Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osters IF and Sandviken matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Osters IF's recent matches and 47% of Sandviken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Osters IF and Sandviken matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Osters IF's matches and 67% of Sandviken's.
Do Osters IF and Sandviken matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Osters IF's recent matches and 73% of Sandviken's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osters IF edge out Sandviken 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Sandviken 1-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.25 xG and Sandviken 1.10 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sandviken landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.74 / defence 0.86 against Sandviken attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 40% | Draw 28% | Sandviken 33%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 50%, Sandviken 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sandviken's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.