Orgryte IS 2-1 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Utsikten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orgryte IS and Utsikten meet at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan (matchday 1). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Orgryte IS's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Utsikten have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Utsikten away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Orgryte IS's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Utsikten's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Orgryte IS's last 10 home games and Utsikten's last 10 away games) — Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Utsikten in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Orgryte IS, 3 for Utsikten and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2024, ended Orgryte IS 1–1 Utsikten — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Utsikten half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 61% versus Utsikten 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 56% | Utsikten 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Orgryte IS surrender their half-time lead 37% of the time, while Utsikten have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.72 xG and Utsikten 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.104 / defence 1.055 | Utsikten attack 0.948 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.194. Data: built from Orgryte IS's last 30 games and Utsikten's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 26%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.05 | Draw 3.90 | Utsikten 3.92. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Orgryte IS's last 10 home games and Utsikten's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Orgryte IS 80% (last 10 home games) | Utsikten 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Orgryte IS 30 games, Utsikten 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, matchday 1 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Orgryte IS 1.72 / Utsikten 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.104 / def 1.055 | Utsikten attack 0.948 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Utsikten xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Orgryte IS vs Utsikten FAQs
What time does Orgryte IS vs Utsikten kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Utsikten kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Utsikten?
Orgryte IS 2 - 1 Utsikten.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Utsikten part of?
Orgryte IS vs Utsikten is a Superettan fixture (matchday 1) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 49% chance of winning, Utsikten a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Orgryte IS and Utsikten will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Orgryte IS vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.10x the league average against Utsikten's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Utsikten's attack (0.95x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Orgryte IS's last 30 games and Utsikten's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.90
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.92
1.20
Utsikten xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
5%
21.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Orgryte IS vs Utsikten Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.20 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 22W 16D 24L from 62 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Utsikten, meanwhile, have gone 27W 16D 19L across 62 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.56 for Utsikten. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 11W 9D 11L from their last 31 home games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Utsikten's away record stands at 10W 9D 12L across their last 31 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.44 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Utsikten
Current Season
Orgryte IS (Home) vs Utsikten (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Utsikten
Current Season
❓ Orgryte IS vs Utsikten Form FAQs
What form are Orgryte IS and Utsikten in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 22W 16D 24L in their last 62 games (1.32 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 27W 16D 19L in their last 62 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Utsikten away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.35 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Orgryte IS and Utsikten, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 31 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Orgryte IS have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Utsikten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
3
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Orgryte IS vs Utsikten H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Utsikten?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Orgryte IS have won 3, Utsikten have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Utsikten last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2025: Utsikten 1-2 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Utsikten see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 71%, Utsikten 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Orgryte IS) and 39% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: Utsikten in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Orgryte IS vs Utsikten Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Orgryte IS and Utsikten matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Orgryte IS's games and 48% of Utsikten's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Orgryte IS and Utsikten matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 39% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Utsikten matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 58% of Utsikten's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Orgryte IS edge out Utsikten 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Utsikten 2-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.72 xG and Utsikten 1.20 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.10 / defence 1.05 against Utsikten attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 49% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 26%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 56%, Utsikten 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Utsikten's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.32 PPG, Utsikten 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.