Utsikten 3-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utsikten at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bravida Arena plays host to Utsikten versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Utsikten have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Bravida Arena, Utsikten have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Landskrona BoIS's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Utsikten against 1.10 for Landskrona BoIS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Utsikten lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Utsikten half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 52% versus Landskrona BoIS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 49% | Landskrona BoIS 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.56 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 1.168 / defence 1.060 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.035 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.177. Data: 59 Utsikten games / 59 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utsikten 43% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 31%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Landskrona BoIS 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Utsikten as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utsikten if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Utsikten 50% | Landskrona BoIS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 43% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Utsikten 1.56 / Landskrona BoIS 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 1.168 / def 1.060 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.035 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Landskrona BoIS xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Utsikten 3 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 43% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (5 meetings): Utsikten 2W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 2W.
What form are Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS in?
Utsikten (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Utsikten's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (1.03x) against Utsikten's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.77
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.85
1.29
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
6%
15.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.29 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Utsikten's recent record stands at 24W 16D 19L from 59 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 21L across 59 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Utsikten against 1.49 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Utsikten have managed 15W 7D 7L from 29 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 11W 5D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utsikten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Utsikten are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.46 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 24W 16D 19L in their last 59 games (1.49 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 25W 13D 21L in their last 59 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Utsikten's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.79 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utsikten won 5-1 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utsikten have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Utsikten
1
Draws
3
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS?
From 8 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 4, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Utsikten 4-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utsikten 59%, Landskrona BoIS 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Utsikten and 62% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utsikten play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Utsikten's games and 59% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utsikten vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Utsikten's matches and 62% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Utsikten and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Utsikten have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Utsikten run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Landskrona BoIS 3-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.56 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.29 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Utsikten beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.17 / defence 1.06 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 43% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 31%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 49%, Landskrona BoIS 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.49 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock. Utsikten (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.