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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Landskrona BoIS host IK brage at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 March 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

IK brage's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Landskrona BoIS at 1.10 PPG versus IK brage's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Landskrona BoIS, 2 for IK brage and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 3–0 with Landskrona BoIS winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

IK brage in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 55% versus IK brage 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 58% | IK brage 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.44 xG and IK brage 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.033 / defence 0.993 | IK brage attack 0.948 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.096. Data: 30 Landskrona BoIS games / 30 IK brage games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 31% | IK brage 25%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | IK brage 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 50% | IK brage 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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