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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Vasteras SK FK host Orgryte IS at Hitachi Energy Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 8 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Superettan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Hitachi Energy Arena, Vasteras SK FK have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hitachi Energy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Vasteras SK FK are significantly better at Hitachi Energy Arena than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Orgryte IS's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Vasteras SK FK) versus 2.10 (Orgryte IS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, Orgryte IS 1, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Orgryte IS winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Vasteras SK FK trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

Orgryte IS trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 40% versus Orgryte IS 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 53% | Orgryte IS 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.02 xG and Orgryte IS 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.870 / defence 1.150 | Orgryte IS attack 1.015 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.232. Data: 1 Vasteras SK FK games / 31 Orgryte IS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 27% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 47%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Orgryte IS 2.13. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 30% | Orgryte IS 50% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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