Orgryte IS 0-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Orgryte IS versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 3 September 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Orgryte IS (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gamla Ullevi this season.
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Orgryte IS. A 0.70 PPG lead over Landskrona BoIS (1.90 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Landskrona BoIS in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Orgryte IS lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2022, ended 2–3 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 67% and Landskrona BoIS 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 49% | Landskrona BoIS 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.89 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.160 / defence 1.038 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.781 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.364. Data: 51 Orgryte IS games / 51 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 54% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 20%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Landskrona BoIS 5.00. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 70% | Landskrona BoIS 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 54% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Orgryte IS 1.89 / Landskrona BoIS 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.160 / def 1.038 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.781 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Landskrona BoIS xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Orgryte IS 0 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 54% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (3 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.16x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.78x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.92
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.99
1.11
Landskrona BoIS xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
15%
6.60
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
3%
32.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.11 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 14W 23D 14L from 51 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 19L across 51 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.37 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 6W 14D 5L from 25 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 4W 6D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.33 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Landskrona BoIS in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 14W 23D 14L in their last 51 games (1.27 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 19W 13D 19L in their last 51 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.28 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 30 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS?
From 10 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 4, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2025, when Orgryte IS 2-0 Landskrona BoIS.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 68%, Landskrona BoIS 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Orgryte IS) and 52% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Orgryte IS's games and 56% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 52% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Landskrona BoIS defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Orgryte IS 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.89 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.11 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Orgryte IS fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.16 / defence 1.04 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.78 / defence 1.16, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 54% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 20%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Landskrona BoIS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 49%, Landskrona BoIS 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.27 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.