IF Brommapojkarna 3-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Brommapojkarna vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna host Landskrona BoIS at Grimsta IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Brommapojkarna — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Grimsta IP this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
IF Brommapojkarna carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IF Brommapojkarna register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Landskrona BoIS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, IF Brommapojkarna have won 0, Landskrona BoIS 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Brommapojkarna 73% and Landskrona BoIS 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 64% | Landskrona BoIS 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 2.03 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.427 / defence 0.916 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.775 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.359. IF Brommapojkarna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.427 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 22 IF Brommapojkarna games / 52 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 61% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 16%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Landskrona BoIS 6.25. The model has a clear lean to IF Brommapojkarna (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 80% | Landskrona BoIS 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 61% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 2.03 / Landskrona BoIS 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.427 / def 0.916 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.775 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Landskrona BoIS xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Landskrona BoIS?
IF Brommapojkarna 3 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 61% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (1 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 0W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 0W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Landskrona BoIS in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from IF Brommapojkarna's attack rating (1.43) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.38
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
3.00
0.97
Landskrona BoIS xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
13%
7.64
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
2%
47.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 0.97 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Landskrona BoIS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IF Brommapojkarna's recent record stands at 13W 5D 4L from 22 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 7L across 22 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Brommapojkarna by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Landskrona BoIS heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IF Brommapojkarna have managed 9W 2D 0L from 11 games — 2.64 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — IF Brommapojkarna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 3W 4D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Brommapojkarna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.27 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Landskrona BoIS in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 13W 5D 4L in their last 22 games (2.00 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (2.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 2.64 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Brommapojkarna and Landskrona BoIS runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
IF Brommapojkarna
1
Draws
0
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Landskrona BoIS?
From 2 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, Landskrona BoIS have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 10 September 2022, when IF Brommapojkarna 3-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Landskrona BoIS?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — IF Brommapojkarna at 82%, Landskrona BoIS at 54%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for IF Brommapojkarna and 46% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 54% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 46% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Brommapojkarna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Landskrona BoIS 3-0 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 2.03 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.97 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.43 / defence 0.92 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.78 / defence 1.04, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 61% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 16%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 64%, Landskrona BoIS 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Brommapojkarna arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.