IK brage 1-2 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs Utsikten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Utsikten travel to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen to take on IK brage. The game is scheduled for Monday 5 September 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Utsikten have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utsikten away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
IK brage carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for IK brage, 1 for Utsikten and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Jun 2022, ended 0–1 with Utsikten winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
IK brage trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Utsikten trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IK brage 71% and Utsikten 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 67% | Utsikten 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.71 xG and Utsikten 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.904 / defence 0.969 | Utsikten attack 0.891 / defence 1.363. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.361. Utsikten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.363 — this is suppressing IK brage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 IK brage games / 21 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 48% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 25%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Utsikten 4.00. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IK brage 60% | Utsikten 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 5 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 48% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG IK brage 1.71 / Utsikten 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.904 / def 0.969 | Utsikten attack 0.891 / def 1.363 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: IK brage (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Utsikten xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Utsikten kick off?
IK brage vs Utsikten kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 5 September 2022 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Utsikten?
IK brage 1 - 2 Utsikten.
Where is IK brage vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Utsikten part of?
IK brage vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 48% chance of winning, Utsikten a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IK brage and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Utsikten?
Record (1 meetings): IK brage 0W | Draws 0 | Utsikten 1W.
What form are IK brage and Utsikten in?
IK brage (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Utsikten (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IK brage's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Utsikten's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
48%
2.06
27%
3.72
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.88
1.17
Utsikten xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
4%
22.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are IK brage and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for IK brage and 1.17 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IK brage come into this having played 21 games, going 10W 7D 4L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Utsikten sit at 1.24 PPG from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Utsikten — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
IK brage's home form reads 4W 3D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Utsikten have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (4W 0D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.43 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Utsikten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Utsikten in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 10W 7D 4L in their last 21 games (1.76 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 7W 5D 9L in their last 21 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Utsikten away?
IK brage's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.50 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.20 PPG.
Have IK brage or Utsikten been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Utsikten in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when Utsikten won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
IK brage
2
Draws
5
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Utsikten?
From 8 meetings on record, IK brage have won 1, Utsikten have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Utsikten 2-1 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Utsikten?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 60%, Utsikten 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for IK brage and 60% for Utsikten. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utsikten in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Utsikten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of IK brage's recent matches and 40% of Utsikten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of IK brage's matches and 60% of Utsikten's.
Do IK brage and Utsikten tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Utsikten defy the odds to beat IK brage 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat IK brage 1-2 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.71 xG and Utsikten 1.17 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Utsikten outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Utsikten attack 0.89 / defence 1.36, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 48% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 25%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Utsikten win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 67%, Utsikten 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Utsikten's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IK brage arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Utsikten winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utsikten (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.