Trelleborg 2-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trelleborg host Orgryte IS at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 12 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trelleborg — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 4W 3D 3L at Vångavallen — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Trelleborg at 1.20 PPG versus Orgryte IS's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Trelleborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Orgryte IS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Trelleborg have won 1, Orgryte IS 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Trelleborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trelleborg 65% and Orgryte IS 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 56% | Orgryte IS 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.39 xG and Orgryte IS 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.997 / defence 1.144 | Orgryte IS attack 0.912 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.319. Data: 52 Trelleborg games / 52 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 37% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 36%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Orgryte IS 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 70% | Orgryte IS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Monday 12 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 37% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Trelleborg 1.39 / Orgryte IS 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.997 / def 1.144 | Orgryte IS attack 0.912 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Orgryte IS xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 12 September 2022 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Trelleborg 2 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS part of?
Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 37% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Trelleborg and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Orgryte IS?
Record (3 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 2 | Orgryte IS 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and Orgryte IS in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 1.00x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
37%
2.73
27%
3.68
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.76
1.38
Orgryte IS xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
9%
10.82
9%
11.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.38 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Trelleborg have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 20W 16D 16L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS's form line: 14W 23D 15L from 52 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.46 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Trelleborg have posted 1.73 PPG from 26 outings (13W 6D 7L).
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 8W 9D 9L from 26 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trelleborg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.35 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Orgryte IS in 65%.
Last 52 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 20W 16D 16L in their last 52 games (1.46 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 14W 23D 15L in their last 52 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Orgryte IS away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.73 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trelleborg and Orgryte IS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Orgryte IS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Trelleborg
2
Draws
2
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Orgryte IS?
From 10 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 6, Orgryte IS have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2025, when Trelleborg 0-2 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Orgryte IS?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 62%, Orgryte IS 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Trelleborg) and 54% (Orgryte IS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Trelleborg's games and 65% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Trelleborg's matches and 54% of Orgryte IS's.
Do Trelleborg and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out Orgryte IS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Orgryte IS 2-1 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.39 xG and Orgryte IS 1.38 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 1.00 / defence 1.14 against Orgryte IS attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 37% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 36%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 56%, Orgryte IS 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.46 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.