Orgryte IS 1-1 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 48%, yet in-form IF Brommapojkarna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees IF Brommapojkarna travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 19 July 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Brommapojkarna — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. IF Brommapojkarna are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Orgryte IS register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
IF Brommapojkarna in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 62% and IF Brommapojkarna 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Orgryte IS 62% | IF Brommapojkarna 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.86 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.977 / defence 1.130 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.979 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.272. IF Brommapojkarna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Orgryte IS games / 13 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 48% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 28%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | IF Brommapojkarna 3.57. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IF Brommapojkarna (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 70% | IF Brommapojkarna 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 48% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Orgryte IS 1.86 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.977 / def 1.130 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.979 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.41
IF Brommapojkarna xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 19 July 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Orgryte IS 1 - 1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 48% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
48%
2.10
24%
4.20
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.27
1.41
IF Brommapojkarna xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
16%
6.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
4%
22.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.41 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 1W 5D 7L from 13 games, a 0.62 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Brommapojkarna, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 4L across 13 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Brommapojkarna by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Orgryte IS heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IF Brommapojkarna's season.
The Goals Picture
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 2.23 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; IF Brommapojkarna in 77%.
Last 13 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Orgryte IS's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 0.83 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
IF Brommapojkarna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 3 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 0, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Orgryte IS 1-2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 50%, IF Brommapojkarna 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Orgryte IS) and 67% (IF Brommapojkarna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Orgryte IS's games and 67% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Orgryte IS's matches and 67% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 14, as Orgryte IS and IF Brommapojkarna drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.86 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.41 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Orgryte IS fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.98 / defence 1.28, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 48% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 28%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 62%, IF Brommapojkarna 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Brommapojkarna arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.